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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob Shilling who wrote (42548)	4/18/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

<<But the bottom line here is that current demand right now looks to be supplied with a large amount of inventory drawdown. 1999 is bound to show us how much overhang we really have, because by the end of 1999 with these type of numbers, we will be eliminating the overhang very fast.>> This very well could be the case. In fact, I'm betting on it. But, eventually, when the overhang is reduced, many more exploration and development projects will come on line to meet the demand for oil, the demand for rigs will increase, there will be another round of new-builds, more oil will be discovered and then produced, supply will creep up on and exceed demand again, drilling will be reduced, etc. And, of course, there will be the general ups and downs of the world economy, which will have an impact on demand. Hopefully we are on an upswing now. That won't last forever. What if we are hit by recession? What if Europe is hit by recession? Stuff happens. What's that famous quote: "Those who forget history are likely to have it come back and bite them on the ...." (But don't try to tell that to the generation of investors who believe a 30% annual return is their birthright. <g>)