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To: Zardoz who wrote (32093)	4/18/1999 8:17:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

No Hutch, interest rates are heading higher but this time oil (and commodities are heading higher) Gold will climb on the back of the oil and once rotation starts in earnest from USA to Asia Oceania.. Do not short.. Asian Stocks: New Zealand Forestry Shares Gain; Japan Exporters May Slump Wellington, April 19 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand stocks rose as investors bet forestry and paper stocks have further to gain, while selected domestic focused stocks gained on expectations the economy will expand amid tame inflation. ''There's more growth to come and equities, in a year or so, will certainly be higher than they are today,'' said Rodney Dickens, economist at ABN Amro New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. Still, ''we think that growth is going to be much stronger than people think,'' and that raises the inflation risks during the coming six to 12 months. The benchmark Top 40 index rose 0.5 percent to 2216.17 after about 30 minutes of trading. Forester Carter Holt Harvey Ltd. led the 17 stocks rising, while 10 stocks fell and 24 were unchanged. In other markets, Japanese exporters may suffer on concern a weakening U.S. dollar will reduce yen-denominated returns on product sold overseas. Mining stocks may lead Australian shares higher for a fifth session, with gains of more than 10 percent in copper and aluminum prices over the past month prompting some investors to buy commodity stocks. U.S. stocks were mixed. Computer stocks extended earlier falls as Sun Microsystems Inc. warned that earnings expectations are too high. Eastman Kodak Co. rose after the world's biggest photography company reported stronger than expected first-quarter earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3 percent to 10,493.89. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1319.00 and the computer-rich Nasdaq Composite Index fell 1.5 percent to 2484.04. New Zealand Pulp and paper maker Carter Holt Harvey, 50.2 percent owned by U.S.-based International Paper Co., rose 3.7 percent to NZ$2.25, having risen 30 percent over the past week. Fletcher Challenge Ltd.'s paper division stock rose 5.3 percent to NZ$1.60, to be up 40 percent over the past week. Rising pulp prices and better than expected first-quarter earnings from International Paper and Weyerhaeuser Co. last week prompted investors to switch from fully priced computer and phone stocks to cyclical stocks. ABN Amro last year put a strong buy recommendation on New Zealand focused stocks, excluding the foresters. While New Zealand stocks should extend their gains, Dickens said most of the gains have already been made. And with growth picking up, he expects the Reserve Bank will need to raise interest rates during the next six months, though he's not expecting any move in rates Wednesday. New Zealand's central bank is forecasting the economy to grow 3 percent in the year to March 2000, after contracting 0.3 percent last year. A government report tomorrow is expected to show inflation was 0.3 percent in the first quarter for an annual rate of 1.2 percent, according to a Bloomberg News survey. It's expected to leave its official 4.50 percent cash rate unchanged at its six-weekly review Wednesday. Japan Japanese stocks may be mixed, as investors wary of a strengthening yen move away from exporters toward companies likely to benefit from government steps to lift the economy. Sony Corp., Honda Motor Corp. and other exporters, which have paced an 17 percent gain by the benchmark index since the beginning of March, may falter on concern the dollar may extend its four session retreat against the yen. Its buying 117.90 yen today from 119.9 a week ago. That prospect is expected to give a boost to steelmakers and other domestic industries suffering from slumping capital expenditures. With corporate Japan preparing to report results for the year ended March 31, however, fund managers will likely limit their buying to companies that have announced cost-cutting programs and other measures to improve profitability even if the economy remains in the doldrums. Australia Australian mining stocks may continue rising on improving conditions for resources, which have ''been developing for some time,'' said Paul Xiradis, who helps manage A$800 million (US$514 million) at AusBIL Partners. ''I think it will continue. There's still a lot of overseas interest -- they have been the big buyers over the past month or so.'' In Korea, Hyundai Electronics Industries Co. and LG Semicon Co. may lead gains by companies involved in government- initiated ''big deal'' asset swaps among Korea's top five business groups. The chairmen of the two groups met over the weekend to try to iron out their differences on the price Hyundai will pay for its rival. The Kospi index has net gained for each of the last eight weeks. Hong Kong stocks may extend their gains before Tuesday's government land auction -- the first in a year. Analysts expect Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd. and others to contribute more than HK$1 billion (US$130 million) to government coffers as they bid for three sites. Philippines Philippine stocks may rise for a 12th day on expectations the economy will recover as interest rates decline. On Friday the central bank cut its key overnight borrowing rate, which goes into effect Monday, to 10.875 percent -- the lowest in two years. Singapore stocks could be mixed. Traders say the 17 percent gain in the key index this month could be too much, too fast. Still, real estate developers, such as City Developments Ltd. could rise as the interbank rate hovered at a near four-year low and rising home prices signals a return to profitability. ©1999 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademarks.

To: Zardoz who wrote (32093)	4/18/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Commodities-Metals surge on fund buying spree 01:29 p.m Apr 16, 1999 Eastern By Camila Reed LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - An investment fund and bank buying spree propelled copper to its highest close in 4-1/2 months on Friday while nickel spiked to an 11-month peak and zinc posted significant gains. The London Metal Exchange (LME) rally fuelled growing speculation that base metals may at last be picking themselves off the floor after a year and a half in the doldrums and analysts said the cycle may be turning. But in the soft commodities, such as coffee and cocoa, the outlook was still depressed with both markets notching up fresh life-of-contract lows on LIFFE Friday. Analyst Alan Williamson of Deutsche Global Mining said: ''In the short term, the momentum is moving higher. All of these metals are significantly off their lows.'' Copper futures raced up to $1,450 a tonne for three months forward delivery, a 7.5 percent gain on the week's opening price. LME dealers said much of the impetus came from signals given by major investors favouring resource company shares, which have been gaining recently, and pointed to Goldman Sachs' upgrade of seven firms in the metals sector. Major mining equities were sharply higher on Friday, with London-listed Rio Tinto Plc and Billiton Plc at their highest levels since August and October 1997 respectively. ''The mood at the moment is that prospects for economies are looking better now than they have been for some time,'' Williamson added. But analysts were still cautious over whether the lows for the cycle have been seen yet. ''There are still downward risks. We are coming up to what is a weak consumption period, and the Japanese economy may have a second down-leg. It is not a one-way bet, certainly,'' Williamson said. While base metals surged soft commodities slumped. LIFFE cocoa ended the week at a new historic low. Front month May (LCCK9) tumbled to 746 pounds a tonne in the afternoon -- eight pounds below the previous historic low hit a week ago. But traders said the market's main problem was psychological after the long, 11-month decline in which May has lost 687 pounds or 39 percent of its value. ''We would normally expect industry to be nibbling away at the forward contracts, but it's not happening. I think their own consumption is way down and this is now affecting us all, right the way down the supply line,'' one trader said. LIFFE May coffee futures also sank to $1,460 a tonne before rebounding late in the day back to the day's opening price of $1,475 aided by a rally in New York. Some prices at 1600 GMT: FRIDAY THURSDAY Ldn Spot Gold ($ per ounce) 283.80 282.95 IPE Brent Crude Oil (Jun) 15.44 15.05 London Metal Exchange (Three months delivery) Copper ($ per tonne) 1,530.00 1,485.00 Aluminium ($ per tonne) 1,318.00 1,316.00 LIFFE Coffee ($/tonne) (May) 1,475.00 1,470.00 Cocoa (Stg/tonne) (May) 755.00 766.00 White Sugar ($/tonne) (Aug) 180.00 179.10 CBOT wheat ($/bushel) (May) 2.58 2.61 ((Camila Reed, London Newsroom +44 171 542 2936, fax +44 171 542 8077 london.commodities.desk+reuters.com)) Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

To: Zardoz who wrote (32093)	4/18/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 116762

Wall Street Expects a New Cycle Sunday, 18 April 1999 N E W Y O R K (AP) AFTER THE great bull market of the 1990s on Wall Street, the way investors look at cycles in the U.S. economy will never be the same again. More than eight years have passed since the last recession in this country. Yet the economy lately has been acting as though a new growth phase is just beginning, rather than showing any signs of peaking. The old idea that booms always set the stage for their own collapse has been seriously challenged. In particular, the optimists declare, the current expansion has proven that strong growth doesn't have to cause a revival of inflation and a tightening of credit conditions. Most economists hasten to add that none of this means the cycle of growth, retrenchment and recovery has been abolished forever. What the current situation does demonstrate, they assert, is that each cycle is different from all previous ones. "Entering its ninth year of uninterrupted growth, the U.S. economy shows none of the danger signs that have presaged the end of previous economic expansions," says Davis Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International in New York. "If anything, the economy has become even more robust with age. "The U.S. economy has shrugged off the deep and lingering recession in Asia, weathered a dramatic near-meltdown of the global financial markets, and even endured the impeachment of a president. The soaring stock market has been a perfect barometer of seeming invulnerability." The domestic economy has been especially strong over the past three years, just at the point when it appeared by many measures to have reached the limits of its capacity. Yet because inflation hasn't revived to date, the Federal Reserve hasn't felt compelled to adopt any sustained policy of credit-tightening. Now, analysts say, new growth momentum appears to be building up with early signs of improvement in some overseas economies. "Green shoots of cyclical revival are increasingly evident around the world," says Stephen Roach at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., in New York. "The U.S. is experiencing an incredible spending boom," observes Bob Prince at Bridgewater Associates in Westport, Conn. "Up until the past few months this boom was offset by extremely weak exports. But in the past three months it has accelerated just as export demand has improved." That prospect raises some important concerns, including what might happen to commodity prices, labor costs and other components of inflation should the pace of business worldwide accelerate. "Overall," says Prince, "conditions are contributing to rising pressures on the Fed to tighten. The markets are not prepared for such an event." But some optimists on Wall Street argue that a quicker tempo could actually improve conditions in the stock market, where many issues have lagged behind over the past year while a few dozen blue chips have led the market indexes to new highs. "The U.S. equity market has been a great place to be in the past several years, but only if you owned the right stocks," says John Manley, equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney Inc. "A few large-capitalization stocks with superior earnings growth have driven the market higher in a period of declining overall growth. But we are now seeing the first signs of a possible turnaround in earnings growth which, if sustained, could benefit value-oriented investment strategies."