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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas who wrote (58446)	4/18/1999 7:39:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

So, how many of us think that Eck will be quick dump his 10M shares?

To: Andreas who wrote (58446)	4/18/1999 8:10:00 PM
From: AHM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

With all due respect to your dad, while I agree with him that there's a lot more to the CFO's sudden resignation than meets the eye, I don't totally agree with him about the true meaning of Gerstner's statement or the oncoming retrenchment of the PC industry. What Gerstner was signaling is that new products will evolve that meet new demands - particularly internet demands. Just consider this. Most colleges require students to be computer literate. For example, for several years, Dartmouth required students to have their own computer when they arrive as freshmen. An overwhelming number of grade schools, and even more high schools, are preparing their students for the dependency we all will soon have on computers in all aspects of life. Surfing the internet is not only a major research tool used by grade schoolers and above, but PC's are being installed in libraries all over America to replace other more conventional research tools. In short, an entire generation of Americans will soon reach adulthood and will require PC's to go on with their every day lives and jobs. What these machines will wind up looking like is what Gerstner was alluding to. It's what the entire industry is wrestling with right now in order to be on the cutting edge of future demand. Frankly, the danger I see is that dependency on computers may create problems in future research where basic knowledge, overlooked in computer-dependent schooling, may prevent future graduates from understanding basic math, practical physics and other concepts because in their earlier and formative years in the educational system computers worked the formulae that many of us had to labor through with nothing other than pencil and paper and an occasional use of a slide rule.

To: Andreas who wrote (58446)	4/18/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: Trey McAtee	Respond to of 97611

andreas and all-- to be honest, i am inclined to agree with your father, at least about the departures. however, i do not think they left because the industry is now in decline or on a replacement only path. what is happening is the commoditization of the PC, the changing of the PC from expensive tool to consumer electronics device. after reviewing some of CPQs recent offerings and looking at management initiative, it should be obvious that another team is needed. these were guys who were used to the PC industry...they helped create it. however, now they need someone familiar with consumer electronics. now, all of you should know who is really going to be hurting... dell, HP a few others. its not their server business, and for now its not the enterprise segment of the market. however, the enterprise segment is pretty much saturated. so is the high end consumer market. since consumers are more price sensitive, slowdowns and price reductions will show up first in the consumer market, then it will move to enterprise PC and servers. dell is used to fairly fat margins because their distribution and manufacturing are very efficient. what happens when that dissapeers in price reductions? bet with the companies who can take advantage of the shift. like CPQ. their consumer sales are already good and will get better with improved design. the entry of dell into this market will be difficult mostly because they dont want to be in stores (and believe it or not, most consumers actually like to buy through brick and mortar). HPW should do ok, but the margins are going to be a killer. that, and their design is about as good as CPQs. so, the industry is going to consolidate, CPQ, HWP and GTW (in that order) in the consumer space and DELL in the enterprise space. i think IBM will probably stop PC production in the next 18 months. will it be better for just these few? no. DELL is going to have to get used to much slower revenue growth...thats going to be tough for a lot of investors. however, most of the bad news is factored into HWP and CPQ. GTW... they are the wild card. personally, i think those stores are a losing proposition, but everyone else seems to disagree. good luck to all, trey