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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (4404)	4/18/1999 9:42:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Respond to of 17770

George, Latest in Russia. Yeltsin has appointed liberal Viktor Chernomyrdin to talk with western capitals on negotiated ways to end war. Signal to West Russia does not want war. Article points out however, Yeltsin only enjoys support of 6% of Russian electorate, and wait for Communist-controlled Duma reaction tomorrow to Chernomyrdin's appointment "above" Primakov and Ivanov.... 0120 GMT, 990419 - According to Reuters, Vicktor Chernomyrdin told Russian television on Sunday night that the Russian leadership will meet on Monday to consider proposals for settling the conflict in Yugoslavia. He also said that he expects to begin visits to NATO capitals as well as to Belgrade shortly. Chernomyrdin also said that his appointment does not mean that Yeltsin has passed over Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov or Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, who are the architects of Russia's pro-Serbia policy. 2315 GMT, 990418 - According to Agence France Presse, Yugoslavian authorities detained and escorted the Deputy Premier of Montenegro, Novak Kilibarda, before a court on charges of "undermining the military defense capacity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia." He was brought before a military magistrate who ordered him to be detained after he had ignored a summons from the court on several occasions, according to the press service of the Yugoslavian Second Army. According the AFP, Kilibarda had said earlier in the day that he did not "recognize either the military tribunal or the Yugoslav government." Rumors of a coup by the Yugoslavian army against the Montenegran government have been circulating for weeks. It is unclear what this action against Kilibarda implies. 2130 GMT, 990418 - Tanjug News Agency is reporting air attacks on Pristina. This evening's attacks are the second wave of attacks reported today. 2110 GMT, 990418 - Russia's former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, who has been appointed as Russia's special envoy to Yugoslavia, has ruled out Russian intervention in Kosovo, saying that it would lead to another World War. He also attacked proposals for a union between Serbia, Russia, and Belarus as premature while Serbia is being bombed. The appointment of the liberal Chernomyrdin was clearly a gesture by the Russian government to NATO. It was an attempt to demonstrate that Moscow was committed to a negotiated settlement and an end to Serb actions in Kosovo. However, it was also an appointment likely to antagonize Communists and nationalists in the Duma. Chernomyrdin is saying the things that NATO wants to hear, but he is saying it on Moscow television. It will be important to watch the reaction of Chernomyrdin's enemies in the next 24 hours, since they support aid to Serbia and some are enthusiastic about some form of political union

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (4404)	4/19/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: nuke44	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17770

George, it was less than ten days ago when I pointed out the devastating effects of allowing the Serb sponsored war(s) in Yugoslavia to inflame the situation between Greece and Turkey. You seemed to imply that I was incorrect in positing that the end result of Serbia's continued aggression could be the spread of the hostilities from the north Adriatic to the eastern Mediterranean. While your fears about Turkey's involvement are valid, you are wrong in assuming that NATO's actions in any way changed the results of Turkey's national elections. The true power in Turkey is, and has been since the overthrow of the Ottoman Empire by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the staunchly secular military power structure. This is evidenced by the fall of Turkey's Islamic Virtue Party which came under the disfavor of the military for it's continued efforts to make the military an instrument of Islamic reform. The Turkish military and much of it's intelligentsia have been unwavering in their dedication to the vision of Ataturk of Turkey as first and foremost a secular state and a country composed of Muslims second. This 80 year tradition could be threatened if it is perceived in Turkey that their historic enemies, the Serbs and the Greeks are waging an unjust war against it's Muslim brethren. Turkey's foremost goal right now is to realize Ataturk's vision of a secular Turkey becoming a full partner with what is now called the EEC. Turkey will not risk losing it's chance to join a modern Europe as a equal without overwhelming provocation. While the rhetoric in the streets may sound reactionary and threatening, Turkey will take no actions against Greece or Yugoslavia unless they feel that they have good reason. Good reason as they see it could be the widening of the conflict to include Greece acting on the side of the Serbs and against Muslims in Macedonia, Albania, or Kosovo. As a side point; While Greece does possess a substantial, and increasingly modern navy, there is no force in the Balkans that could match the military might of Turkey. All the more reason to stop the nine year old war in the Balkans now, before Milosevic's vision of a Serbian holyland, anointed in the blood of their foes, becomes a Hieronymus Bosch vision of the apocalyse, involving not only the Balkans, but the rest of Europe and the Middle East as well.