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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: phbolton who wrote (45139)	4/18/1999 11:11:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 53903

ph, sometimes dram pricing isn't lagging. in mid to late 1997, dram fell from over $10 to the low $6s in a short period of time. mu went from the low $40s to $60. when i pointed out, in mid to late 1997, that mu would make less due to the rapid price decline (even though analysts were touting growth and, i quote, "the best of all worlds!"), david and a few others made three points: 1. i was wrong because the stock was going up and it couldn't be wrong - 1998 was going to be wonderful! 2. i was wrong b/c the analysts were right (and they all said 1998 was the year!) and they are professionals (who did i think i was? ;-) 3. i was wrong because the data i was using was wrong b/c if it was right then mu the stock was wrong and that wasn't possible. well, i was right and the stock was wrong as it made a bee line for $20 from $60 faster than you could shake a stick. i was right b/c mu reported declining earnings. my data was right as it led to the correct conclusion - almost exactly. larry chimed in w/ his two cents that dram pricing HAD to turn positive b/c mu price action ALWAYS led dram prices. anything else was inconceivable. so, some dogs, old or not, don't learn new tricks. the pricing that you see now is a disaster for mu. i would caution against using retail as the be all, end all pricing gauge. watch chip pricing. it is down enough that mu is hurting. btw, how did i know that the only thing between mu at $20 to $80 back to $20 would be about a dime in earnings months ago? i learned to respect the sheer lunacy and lack of analytical ability possessed by the mu investment crowd. that smart big mo trader that larry said bought at $80 is sure happy now! ;-) deja vu all over again... ;-) good luck.

To: phbolton who wrote (45139)	4/19/1999 2:00:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

phb, oh, and david also rewrites history to keep intact his perceived perfection ;-)

To: phbolton who wrote (45139)	4/20/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: Fabeyes	Respond to of 53903

.....I don't think embedded will disappear from either the desktop or workstation markets anytime soon... I agree. If you look at the companies who have gone into the EBEDDED flow there are many, including Micron -- look at Rendition. I agree there has not been a lot come out that but seems LSI is tagging up with another company soon to work on its EBEDDED DRAM. Then there is Samsung, several or most, ASIC Fab have some kind of EMBEDDED or simple flash component . The truth is there are few, if any, full DRAMS anymore. Most have some kind of logic built.