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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ~digs who wrote (5723)	4/19/1999 8:30:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 57584

TO ALL: . . . . .THE WEEK AHEAD. . . . . Regarding locating the list of companies in the Russell 2000 and this new "mania" over small caps. . . what about the internets. . . and some stocks to watch this week based on last week. . . RUSSELL 2000: Thanks Lola and Protege. Got it. I'll be reading thru it [like reading a phone book] . . .to try to find some hot spots, but I encourage others to do same. We have discussed hundreds of small and microcaps here, so you will be amazed at the number that you will recognize. The key is to grab those that we have already determined have terrific financials. Many have PE ratios under 10. Some are internet or telecom. . .Some are selling for half their book values. Some have deals with the majors. It is everyone's job over the next few days to sort out the chaff from the wheat. Don't ask what about this one or that one? Just post the companies you feel have the best chance of getting picked up in this ridiculous game. . . [I say game, because I truly believe that the plan is to make mutual funds appear better by giving shot in the arm to cyclicals and small caps. . . what's next Emerging Markets?] But this thread is totally about playing the game at hand better than others, because we are prepared for the changes. We adjust to what is working without ever departing what has worked for us in the past. These adjustments are strictly meant to be supplemental to a "normal" portfolio. INTERNETS: I still don't think we have seen the bottom on the internets. I think this whole rotation churn is setting the advantaged up with just what they want/need for the summer. . . we must do same. The internets are not looking strong to me. That says that the game is taking effect with individual investors . . to some extent. The great internets will always be great, and of course my feeling about them has not changed the slightest. But I am looking to buy ATHM at 100 [pre-split]. . .DCLK at 90. . .NDB in the 20's. . . SIEB in the teens. . . STOCKS TO WATCH: As for stocks to watch, relatively unrelated to the Russell mania. . . Expect RRRR to continue to gain momentum. . .I see this thing as a potential triple from these levels, just because they are a CMGI wannabe. . .certainly not because they "deserve" to be there. . .so far all they have is a dream. . .just so happens to coorespond with internet investors dream. SPLH has been making significant gains since last Tuesday . . with Friday being the largest gains. . .honestly I have no idea what is moving this one, unless somebody like HWP is interested in them. Splash makes the brains of color printers and sells them to the top printer makers. DMIC Digital Microwave showed some regular gains this week on their broadband interest. . no clear indication of other reasons. HDWY undervalued gem staffing service. . . specializes in high-tech jobs, since acquiring several businesses last year. OMX I still expect to continue to make similar gains as last week, as they expand their web recognition and presence with portal deals and advertising. . .and as they streamline their traditional operation. And don't forget that Office Depot blew the street away last week with their earnings. . . OMX is essentially an Office Depot clone. GRDN woke up Friday, as William alerted us. Think hard about this one. Olli North is president. Float is in the hundreds of thousands. Company is well established. Last year they were awarded a GSA certification allowing them to sell to the U. S. Government. They make the "highest tech" military / law enforcement protection devices, such as the VERY BEST bullet-proof vests. . .designed to withstand high-power "cop-killer" bullets. Still thinking? Clinton is asking congress for 6 billion more for the Kosovo "crises." Now I have no idea if a nickle will trickle down into Ollie's pockets. . . but I am gambling that the war will soon bring GRDN some new contracts and that they will wake up in a MAJOR way, should the right news hit on the right day. This one has the potential of an easy 10 bagger, given the proper circumstances. . .and to me that is worth holding it at a buck-fifty all year long. . . I even have some of their warrants, tho I'm not sure if they are still worth anything. . . haven't traded in months. . . no big deal, as it is in penny port. ADBE is breaking out of it's 52-week high. This graphics software firm is planning some releases to put them back on top. But I believe that soon they will announce the acquisition of a thorn-in-their-side. . . namely Corel [COSFF]. Corel is cheap at under 3.25 and is also a potential play. They have recently begun DIRECT marketing of their diversified software catalog to the public via Sunday paper inserts, etc. But my guess is that within a year ADBE will just get tired of hearing about Corel Draw's increasing market share and just buy them out to get rid of them. CMIC is a great little position for several reasons. This is a fairly pure play in the broadband arena and focused on wireless. But the key to future movement, in my opinion, was found deep in the bowels of a recent press release. On April 29, they will be changing their name to Adaptive Broadband and changing symbol to ADAP. Now technically that changes nothing. But remember, investors buy on "PERCEPTION" not on reality. If this company is suddenly perceived as a real broadband player, it could race out of the teens and into the big leagues very quickly. AXC is one of our older positions. . .now graduated from a timing play. On Friday, Lucent put out about 4 different digital video press releases about things they will be revealing and demonstrating at the NAB [National Assosiation of Broadcasters] in Vegas this week. But if we look at recent Ampex news, we find that Ampex signed a deal with LU this past week to find an archival storage solution for Lucent's digital video format. So if Lucent is a hit at the show and their format is adopted, the Ampex moves along with them. . .of course there is more to Ampex than this deal, including their own acquisitions. I also expect an eventual spin-off here of the holding company [which specializes in buying up digital video related companies]. . .which is their pot-o'-gold. IFCI and AFCI . . .and any other owners of fibre-optic networks will get a nice boost today on the Bell South investment in QWST. We discussed these last week. ANY company that owns fibre-optic lines will prosper by the Next Generation Internet [NGI]. . . and that is where the "new" money is heading. Watch for continued weakness in the "old internet" and a MAJOR move into the NGI companies. This too was predicted months ago. The internet as we know it is ANCIENT and will turn into a dinosaur so fast you won't believe it. The very MINUTE that the cable companies launch a major marketing campaign of broadband, full digital video set-top boxes, then the internet as we know it will become a lame duck. HAS and CKR should show continued strength. As for IDTC, OMKT, BDE, CHRZ and CDNW, I have no feeling as to what will happen this week. . .yet. Keep an eye on bio-techs and alert me if they show the least sign of heating up, so we can decide on some baskets there, too. Take profits this week when you get them, because the weather is changing quicker than we can say "sector rotation." Best wishes to all. Rande Is