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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anaxagoras who wrote (2219)	4/19/1999 8:21:00 AM
From: Ocote	Respond to of 2506

Anaxagoras-- Thanks for looking at those charts. The question here,for me, is whether there is any simple, mechanical way to predict further success or breakdown of an IPO. There may not be. Type I: Winners: Those that attract sustained volume and establish an uptrend from the start: EBAY 1000%+ Type II: Failed early excitement. Mild early excitement followed by breaking below the initial IPO price. See SCS, which I went long on until it broke down out of its uptrend and went on to lose 50% It's now a good value and probably a good long. Also, ONX, DOCC, SIDE, HFWA, ADG, TSBK, ETT, NUTR, ARTI(a bit longer intial excitement), JIT, MEXP in '98 Note the volume fading before the price begins to fall in many of these. finance.yahoo.com Type III: Early breakdown initially, like ICED. For last year see CRGN, NHCH, ADPI, NGEN, UPFC, GBNK, BTSR, ASPC(!), HMPC(!) finance.yahoo.com Both of the 2nd two categories may have potential for shorting, but a simple mechanical model may not work. Regarding INMG, it is establishing a high after a lower low, but it has not established a HIGHER high than the high of 3/9. A similar situation occurred with DSET on 4/9/98, but, not breaking above the intitial high may have been the early sell signal, confirmed by breaking below the previous low. Ocote