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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Howe who wrote (2432)	4/19/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Thomas M.	Respond to of 10280

The drop in Prozac sales could very well be due to the long washout period, which would motivate Lilly to accelerate trials. I think the 200 dma holds, and we've seen the lows. Tom

To: David Howe who wrote (2432)	4/19/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10280

>>4% drop in Prozac sales. Not a very good reason for the stock to fall from 140 to 80.<< When I read the LLY report this morning, I thought, "this won't help us today" but I never dreamed it would get this bad. But on the road from maximum optimism to maximum pessimism, all rational perspective gets lost. As much as I've enjoyed your earnings model, this episode shows one weakness in relying too much on discounted earnings models to determine present values. The reason to be in SEPR isn't because X billion in Prozac sales will turn into Y millions in earnings for SEPR in year Z. It's because SEPR has a proven means of bringing new pharmaceutical products to market quickly and cheaply, has patented rights to those products, has marketing agreements with large companies based on those patents, has a good savvy management (as proof, take coming up with the idea to file all those method-of-use patents in the first place), and down the road will be making a lot of money. Has anything changed?