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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stilts who wrote (7435)	4/19/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

If Asia truly rebounds and cyclicals start to show real EPS growth, the rotation will continue. However: 1. The flight from tech has targeted high P/E stocks indiscriminately. I believe spending will be much more robust in carrier equipment than in other sectors. As such, earnings should attract $ back to the sector, rotation or no rotation. 2. I believe LU will show truly exceptional EPS growth this year - nearly 40% - and beyond - 28 to 30% over 5 years. Even with modest near term multiple contraction, this stock should outperform the market, and its peers - including Cisco which would suffer even more from a continued rotation due to its higher P/E and similar EPS growth prospects. 3. I don't think the trouble in Asia is over yet. This rotation is early in the cycle, and alot of big players could get burned should the cyclicals fail to show a significant earnings upturn. Evidence of stall in Asia and/or poor cyclical earnings would stop this rotation in its tracks.