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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (1299)	4/19/1999 5:04:00 PM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

> You are not alone with your call, I think we have the same date. Yes we are close, although your call did not include the declines of friday itself, so if the market continues straight down I will cross the 40% line first. :) However, I will give half the money to a charity of your choice if it turns out i win, since we were _very_ close.. cheers

To: Follies who wrote (1299)	4/19/1999 11:35:00 PM
From: Sir Auric Goldfinger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3543

Some perspective:"Before Internet, There Was Biotech. It was called a "joy ride" for investors -- while it lasted. Early in the decade, the boom in biotech stocks caused a frenzy among IPO investors that was remarkably similar to what is happening now with Internet stocks. One Wall Street Journal article in 1991 noted: "Inspired by the 340% rise in Amgen Inc.'s stock in the past year, investors have rushed into biotechnology stocks in search of the next rising star in the young industry."Replace "biotechnology" with "Internet" and you have today's story. But will the ending be the same? Many biotech stocks plunged. (oh my there it is again!) Here is a table of the biggest biotech IPOs in the 1990s. Issuer Issue Date Offer Price % %change from offer Change on First Day of Trading % Change From Offer Price Lead Underwriter Wellcome 07/27/92 $15.25 0 Acquired Morgan Stanley Boston Scientific 05/18/92 17.00 +0.7% +331.6% Goldman Sachs Minerals Tech. 10/23/92 16.00 +6.3 +225.0 Lazard Freres Pharmacia 06/16/94 15.30 N.A. Merged Goldman Sachs Guidant 12/14/94 14.50 +0.9 +1,351.7 Morgan Stanley RP Scherer 10/11/91 18.00 +1.4 Acquired Lehman Brothers SulzerMedica 07/14/97 23.85 +14.3 -16.1 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Physio-Control Int'l 12/12/95 14.50 +4.3 Acquired Morgan Stanley Waters 11/16/95 15.00 +0.8 +617.5 Merrill Lynch Perrigo 12/16/91 16.00 +45.3 +4.7 Morgan Stanley Ocular Sciences 08/04/97 16.50 +24.2 +65.9 Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Shire Pharm. 03/25/98 17.25 +15.9 +10.1 Bear Stearns Haemonetics 05/09/91 22.00 +8.0 +34.6 First Boston Heartport 04/25/96 21.00 +66.7 -72.0 Morgan Stanley Regeneron Pharm. 04/02/91 22.00 -4.0 -70.1 Merrill Lynch Fisher Scientific 12/18/91 14.50 -2.6 +628.4 First Boston Source for data: Securities Data/Thomson Financial