To: Sonny McWilliams who wrote (23474 ) 4/20/1999 9:30:00 AM From: William Hunt Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27012
Sonny ---from briefing.com---Updated: 20-Apr-99 Techs Unplugged For quite some time the tech sector had been driven by two forces. The first was strength in the large-cap industry leaders. Convinced that bigger was better, investors poured money into the likes of EMC Corp. (EMC), Dell (DELL), Cisco (CSCO), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Intel (INTC), Lucent (LU), America Online (AOL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO), without much concern over price and/or value. The second was the emergence of the Internet. Unbridled optimism over the Net's potential led to widespread buying of virtually everything ".com." As Briefing.com noted in a recent Brief, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action was huge, with day traders driving stocks to unfathomable heights on the vaguest promise of future profitability. Over the past week, however, we have seen institutional investors rotate out of the large-cap names and day traders dump Net stocks. What triggered the sector's sharp reversal is tough to say exactly. Earnings concerns, anxiety over the slowdown in the PC group, valuations and Kosovo are among the reasons given for the change in sentiment. In reality it's probably some combination of all of these factors. Fortunately, none of the aforementioned factors should prove to be long-term concerns for the tech sector. In fact, Briefing.com contends that most of the selling is behind the group already. Using recent tech pullbacks as a guide, Briefing.com notes that the large-cap, non-Net stocks typically slide between 20% and 30% from their 52-wk highs. Meanwhile the large-cap, top tier Net stocks fall by 30%-40%, and the second/third tier Net stocks tumble roughly 50%-60%. One look at the table below suggests that if the current retreat is similar to recent pullbacks, the time for bargain hunting is close at hand. In fact, we wouldn't be surprised to see sector mending its ways by mid-week. Bargain hunters should note that the big names typically bounce back first. BEST WISHES BILL