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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (11486)	4/19/1999 7:54:00 PM
From: Stephen	Respond to of 99985

AS - best if the 'guru's reply to this one. My own personal opinion about most internets is that it is best to look at the calendar cycle & check what the 52 week low is .... and figure that as the downside risk. AOL is one of the exceptions. As for the Naz bounces after a big decline, sure it may well happen, especially as, as per Don, they are due for one and are oversold. However, if sentiment has changed, with valuations in techs still being high, strength maybe used to sell into. Todays tech decline is just the culmination of the weak intraday readings I have been getting for days, as it suggested that they have been under distribution. At these market levels, there is a high risk to reward ratio. No reason not to trade if one is nimble, but I am hearing that any great peformance that MSFT, EMC et al put in on earnings is already in the price ... and after earnings, keeping the valuations maybe difficult for the tech bell weathers. There have also been many who believed that the indices need to get back to their 200 mda .... and if one believes that the 9150 level is likely to be revisited by the DJIA ... its time has come to start the pullback. Frankly, I'm more bearish than many on the thread ... but this is my opinion for what its worth. Regards Stephen

To: American Spirit who wrote (11486)	4/19/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: George Sepetjian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Clinton/War/The Market Wake up and smell the coffee. A liberal baby-boomer has stumbled into a war because he was so focused on his impeachement problems as outlined in the recent NY Times article. It's gonna get worse (the war) before it gets better. Past history has shown that anyone who gets involved with the Clinton's gets destroyed while they walk away from the carnage. Instead of individuals, this time it will be the public, ie. the shareholders of common stock who are going to be victimized during the coming years. Buy low-Sell high is the oft-heard phrase. Well if a P/E of 34 on the current S&P 500 isn't high enough,investors deserve to get whacked. Forget the numbers (DOW 10K) and focus on valuation. There's no shortage of people trying to sell you a basket of strawberries for over $2 a basket. Doesn't mean you have to buy them now.

To: American Spirit who wrote (11486)	4/19/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

American Spirit, >>>> Considering the fact that the last two NAZ crashes were followed quickly by more than 50% retracements then followed again by higher highers (took about 4-6 weeks to fully recover) wouldn't you say tomorrow (or this afternoon) was a selling climax, oversold buying opportunity? Not that I have any cash left but I'd just like to know your opinions. - All this talk about broken trendlines and so forth ignores the fact that in many cases these tech stocks are looking like terrific bargains. <<<< Thats a valid question. I look at technical analysis as a statistical/mathematical study of historical patterns which projects probability. If a certain pattern results in strong upswing 20 out of 25 times it is fair to say that the probability is in favor of that specific pattern heading up. As for breaking a trendine to the downside, there is a fair probability that the index/stock will then test the next support area, and that such trendline will now become a resistance line. It is not 100%. As for cheap, I feel that is a relative issue. Yes, the NAZ is cheap compared to what it was last week, and in fact my short-term technicals are agreeing with you that for the short-term (1-5 days), it is cheap and that there should be a bounce within the next 2 days. But if one compares it to other parameters like historical P/E, it is not that cheap. Seeya