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To: Cyrus who wrote (11641)4/19/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: jkc  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Good article on today's action courtesy of Mohan on the Dell thread:

Monday April 19, 9:28 pm Eastern Time

Investors told to keep faith in volatile Internet stocks

By Andrea Orr

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 19 (Reuters) - If it looked like Monday was a bad day for the stock market, it was far worse for the growing number of Internet stocks.

Amazon.com Inc (AMZN - news) tumbled more than $31 a share, Yahoo Inc (YHOO - news) was down more than $25 and scores of other companies that sell everything from airline tickets to Beanie Babies over the Internet went on sale themselves and saw their stock prices crumble.

Virtually all of the stocks registering the biggest losses on the NASDAQ Exchange were Internet-related. Of them, the ten biggest decliners all shed more than $30 a share.

Which led to the inevitable question: has the Internet stock bubble finally burst?

The experts were quick to respond with a definitive, ''No.'' At least not yet.

As Internet stocks suffer a series of rough trading days sending some shares more than $100 below recent highs, most analysts are gingerly sticking to their standard explanation that volatility is to be expected. They are urging investors not to lose faith -- or their stomachs.

''This is exactly what has happened every other quarter for the past eight quarters without fail,'' said BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Keith Benjamin. He said investors typically buy these stocks ahead of earnings reports, only to sell once the numbers -- however positive -- come out.

The only difference this time around, say many analysts, is that stocks have risen to such high levels that even normal sell-offs look stupendous.

''Internet investing is tech investing on steroids,'' said Scott Rimer of Cowen and Co. ''Volatility is the name of the game. This is a difficult group to own and invest in, to understand and to stomach.''

If the cycle continues as it has in the past, analysts say, the stocks will recover, after a few of the undeserving ones have been weeded out.

All bets are that Internet blue chips like America Online Inc. (AOL - news) will be the first to rebound. What is trickier, is predicting which stocks will be left behind.

''Everyone gets capitalized to the moon in the beginning, then some get wacked and never return,'' said Rimer. ''I don't necessarily have a read on which ones are done rebounding.''

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To: Cyrus who wrote (11641)4/20/1999 8:03:00 AM
From: Cyrus  Respond to of 41369
 
So far so good. EMC, TXN both report great earnings. If Msft reports good earnings as expected we should be away to the races!!



To: Cyrus who wrote (11641)4/20/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: Cyrus  Respond to of 41369
 
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Bonus Links: Yesterday's Brief: The Net Falters| Archive of Stock Briefs

Updated: 20-Apr-99

Techs Unplugged

For quite some time the tech sector had been driven by two forces. The first was
strength in the large-cap industry leaders. Convinced that bigger was better,
investors poured money into the likes of EMC Corp. (EMC), Dell (DELL), Cisco
(CSCO), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Intel (INTC), Lucent (LU), America Online
(AOL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Yahoo! (YHOO), without much concern over price
and/or value.

The second was the emergence of the Internet. Unbridled optimism over the Net's
potential led to widespread buying of virtually everything ".com." As Briefing.com
noted in a recent Brief, the disconnect between fundamentals and price action was
huge, with day traders driving stocks to unfathomable heights on the vaguest
promise of future profitability.

Over the past week, however, we have seen institutional investors rotate out of the
large-cap names and day traders dump Net stocks. What triggered the sector's
sharp reversal is tough to say exactly. Earnings concerns, anxiety over the
slowdown in the PC group, valuations and Kosovo are among the reasons given for
the change in sentiment. In reality it's probably some combination of all of these
factors.

Fortunately, none of the aforementioned factors should prove to be long-term
concerns for the tech sector. In fact, Briefing.com contends that most of the selling is
behind the group already. Using recent tech pullbacks as a guide, Briefing.com
notes that the large-cap, non-Net stocks typically slide between 20% and 30%
from their 52-wk highs. Meanwhile the large-cap, top tier Net stocks fall by
30%-40%, and the second/third tier Net stocks tumble roughly 50%-60%. One
look at the table below suggests that if the current retreat is similar to recent
pullbacks, the time for bargain hunting is close at hand. In fact, we wouldn't be
surprised to see sector mending its ways by mid-week. Bargain hunters should note
that the big names typically bounce back first.