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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Broken_Clock who wrote (11509)	4/19/1999 10:35:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE. Another strange day. On today's run up the to the 1350 area on the June S&P's a 1010 up-tick reading was recorded. Up-tick readings exceeding +600 are bearish and the higher above +600 level the more bearish the implication. The Fibonacci relationships are also bearish. The pattern I'm going to describe doesn't show up on a day chart, but it does show up on a 15-minute chart. When a market retraces below a previous consolidation pattern than the up is over. On the April 15 low the June S&P's retraced below the previous consolidation pattern drawn on April 6 and 7. This puts the market in either a sideways or down pattern but not up. This is one of the reasons we kept ½ of our put position over the weekend. Today in candlestick charting on the June S&P's, no identifiable pattern was drawn other than it was a black bearish candle. The Weekly candlestick pattern drew a Bearish "Mid point Harami Line" which implies the intermediate picture is turning bearish. What is puzzling us is that the McClellan Oscillator closed today at +163, which implies future strength in the market. Also the ARMS Index closed at 1.60 which implies a short-term bottom is not far off. No bullish candlestick pattern was drawn today, therefore the very short-term picture is still down but a bottom is not far off. The 1280 on the June S&P's is a feasible target for the low. If 1268 were hit, it would spell trouble for longer term.