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Pastimes : Let's Talk About Our Feelings!!! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edwarda who wrote (35453)	4/20/1999 1:41:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 108807

He [Michael Burke] is intellectually dishonest. I had an extended discussion with this man, and I can confirm what you said. I took on his assertion that Compaq had taken market share from Dell using several years' data to point out that Compaq 's results were considerably more seasonal than Dell's, but when you adjust for seasonality differences the apparent market share increase disappeared. Further, I pointed out that Compaq's results were highly skewed because of its use of intermediate channels of distribution. Never have I seen such sophistry. And never have I come across such sneering. It is one thing to have a difference of opinion; it is quite another to treat your opponent with contempt and attempt to "prove" your position with lies and half truths. But that is precisely what Burke did. Why you feel compelled to apologize for yourself is beyond my understanding. Certainly I share your sense of frustration, but I must point out that the market is unpredictable. Or do you insist on trying to be better than the rest of us fallable human beings and insist that you need to have oracular vision? I have spent considerable time trying to make sense of of the internet craze, but I will not gloat over the fact these companies have experienced massive down drafts over the last few days. My analysis was not rocket science. What saddens me, though, is that so many analysts abandoned prudence and were recommending these stocks at unconscionable prices and ignoring the financial fundamentals which ought to be underpinning the price. I felt as if they were a bunch of prostitutes working for a pimp (investment bankers). But we both know this game will go on. Investors will get excited when their favorite internet gets upgraded for no good reason, and throw brickbats when an honest analyst tries to warn them. I saw that game on the Dell thread when several contributors went crazy over Dan Niles comments (accurate as it turned out). I think I'm babbling. I've had a bit too much to drink (nothing to do with the market) and am probably not making much sense. There are rare moments that I feel I can see things with a certain crystal clarity, but have a difficult time conveying it. I'm not a market timer, and I'm not a valuation guy. So for what it's worth, I think we will continue to see a sell off for a few more days, but it will be restricted to tech stocks because that's where a lot of the insanity has been. I think we'll see a lot of margin calls which will feed the down turn. Watch out for the low float high cap stocks like AMZN. You could get crushed there. Tech is where the growth is. This sell-off is minor. I wouldn't even call it a correction yet. But beware of some of the money managers -- many are kids and have never seen a real swoon in the market (Oct 87 for example). Greenspan knows to add liquidity if things get nuts. So I think if the kids managing the big portfolios don't panic things will be OK. I'm sitting tight and will just ride this out. Don't panic, and don't beat yourself up. There's no percentage in either. CTC