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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (51690)	4/20/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: MoonBrother	Respond to of 164684

05:39am EDT 20-Apr-99 BT Alex. Brown Incorporated (S. Andrikopoulos/L. Ber) AMZ March Media Metrix Results Point Toward Healthy Industry Growth--The Andrikopoulos, Shaun G. (415) 477-4234 04/20/1999 Berger, Lance A (415) 732-3004 BT Alex. Brown Incorporated ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AMAZON.COM INC. (AMZN) "STRONG BUY" AMERICA ONLINE, INC. (AOL) "STRONG BUY" AT HOME CORPORATION (ATHM) "BUY" CDNOW INC. (CDNW) "BUY" CYBERIAN OUTPOST INC. (COOL) "STRONG BUY" DOUBLECLICK INC. (DCLK) "STRONG BUY" DIGITAL RIVER INC. (DRIV) "STRONG BUY" EBAY INC. (EBAY) "BUY" LYCOS, INC. (LCOS) "BUY" ONSALE INC. (ONSL) "MKT. PERFORM" INFOSEEK CORPORATION (SEEK) "BUY" TMP WORLDWIDE INC. (TMPW) "STRONG BUY" EXCITE, INC. (XCIT) "BUY" YAHOO!, INC. (YHOO) "BUY" March Media Metrix Results Point Toward Healthy Industry Growth--The Big Are Getting Bigger ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 52-WK Earnings Per Share FY Price Price 3-5 Yr Est. Ticker End 04/19/1999 Range 1998 1999 2000 Growth Chg? AMZN 12 158.94 199-13 (0.50)A (0.93) (0.60) 75% N AOL 06 117.63 176-17 0.13A 0.34 0.52 50% N ATHM 12 118.94 198-23 (0.35)A (0.10) 0.45 75% N CDNW 12 13.38 39-7 (2.80)A (3.34) (2.77) 50% N COOL 02 14.50 46-6 (0.79) (1.22)A (1.64) 75% N DCLK 12 104.00 165-7 (0.57)A (0.46) (0.08) 75% N DRIV 12 35.50 61-5 (0.97)A (1.17) (0.70) 100% N EBAY 12 154.13 195-8 0.07A 0.08 0.18 100% N LCOS 07 75.75 145-20 (0.12)A (0.12) 0.28 20% N ONSL 12 23.88 108-11 (0.77)A (2.35) (1.80) 75% N SEEK 09 45.63 100-15 (0.32)A (1.60) (1.12) 75% N TMPW 12 62.00 93-15 0.65A 0.99 1.26 40% N XCIT 12 108.50 188-18 (0.14)A 0.51 1.14 75% N YHOO 12 163.69 244-25 0.13RA 0.39 0.55 75% N ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HIGHLIGHTS: --INTERNET USAGE FOR TOP-50 SITES DOUBLED SINCE AUGUST: Despite the dramatic sell-off in the past couple of days, industry growth appears to be very solid according to the March Media Metrix figures. Total Internet usage hours for the Top-50 Web properties hit an all time high in March with 192 mm usage hours, up 17% from February and nearly double that of August. --AOL, which recently announced (4/15/99) that it reached the 17 mm member mark, should report a quarter-end subscriber number north of 16.7-16.8 mm when it reports its F3Q results next week vs. our 16.1 mm estimate. We believe that AOL's F3Q results should be better than our $1,048 mm revenue and $0.09 EPS forecast. --Amazon.com increased its reach to 17.4% in March vs. 14.5% in February, and 15.5% in December, a key indication that the Company will likely experience upside to our $265 mm Q1 revenue estimate when it reports its F1Q results next week. DETAILS: INTERNET USAGE FOR TOP-50 SITES DOUBLED SINCE AUGUST Despite the dramatic sell-off in the past couple of days, industry growth appears to be very solid according to the March Media Metrix figures. Total Internet usage hours for the Top-50 Web properties hit an all time high in March (according to Media Metrix) with 192 mm usage hours, up 17% from February and nearly double that of August. We believe this reinforces our thesis that the big are getting bigger as Yahoo! experienced solid growth with a 17% increase in monthly usage hours. Total Internet Usage Hours For the Top-50 Sites (in millions)* Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 ------ ------- ------- ------- ------- -------- -------- -------- ------- 80 97 119 124 147 148 170 164 192 Source: Media Metrix and BT Alex. Brown Research AOL AND YAHOO! DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE PACK AOL's Web properties (excluding its proprietary network) reached 69.1% of the Domestic Internet population in March, while Yahoo! reported 64.0% (on a consolidated basis). We believe these figures point to the industry leadership AOL and Yahoo! have created and reinforce our thesis that market share is becoming increasingly difficult to dislodge. Reach %* --------------------------------------------------------- Mar-99 Feb-99 Jan-99 Dec-98 Nov-98 Oct-98 ------ ------- ------- ------ ------- -------- AOL Websites 69.1% 53.3% 54.0% 54.5% 53.5% 47.9% Yahoo!* 64.0% 63.0% 50.5% 48.2% 48.0% 47.6% Microsoft 51.9% 51.5% 51.6% 48.4% 48.9% 46.3% Lycos 51.8% 48.7% 48.8% 46.5% 45.2% 44.5% GO Network 38.6% 36.5% 39.0% 36.0% 32.7% 32.6% Excite 30.6% 30.1% 31.2% 29.2% 30.0% 30.1% Snap.com 15.8% 14.3% 11.0% 9.5% 9.5% 9.1% Source: Media Metrix and BT Alex. Brown Research (reach is defined as the percentage of total domestic Web users who visit a given Web property in a given month). Includes Netscape for March ** Includes Geocities and Broadcast.com for February and March AOL, which recently announced (4/15/99) that it reached the 17 mm member mark, should report a quarter-end subscriber number north of 16.7-16.8 mm when it reports its F3Q results next week vs. our 16.1 mm estimate. We believe that AOL's F3Q results should be better than our $1,048 mm revenue and $0.09 EPS forecast. We reiterate our "Strong Buy" investment rating on the shares of AOL. E-COMMERCE COMPANIES REACH % ACTS AS EARLY INDICATOR OF SOLID Q1 RESULTS Amazon.com and eBay, both tier 1 Internet franchises, experienced a significant increase in both month/month and Q/Q reach statistics. Amazon.com increased its reach to 17.4% in March vs. 14.5% in February, and 15.5% in December, a key indication that the Company will likely experience upside to our $265 mm Q1 revenue estimate when it reports its F1Q results next week. We reiterate our "Strong Buy" investment rating on the shares of Amazon.com. Reach %* --------------------------------------------------------- Mar-99 Feb-99 Jan-99 Dec-98 Nov-98 Oct-98 ------ ------- ------- ------ ------- -------- Amazon 17.4% 14.5% 15.5% 16.1% 13.8% 11.8% EBAY 13.1% 10.8% 10.5% 9.7% 7.6% 5.6% BARNES & NOBLE 6.7% 5.7% 7.8% 8.3% 6.6% 6.0% Previewtravel 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% CDnow 4.6% 4.3% 3.8% 4.7% 4.5% 3.4% Beyond.com 4.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.8% 2.2% 2.2% EGGHEAD.COM 3.7% 3.2% 4.0% 5.2% 3.5% 3.3% N2k 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% PRICELINE.COM 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 1.6% 1.5% 2.1% BUY.COM 2.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 0.8% 1.4% ONSALE 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5% ETrade 2.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% eToys 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 6.8% 5.2% 2.6% Outpost.com 1.0% 0.9% 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% Source: Media Metrix