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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Perfette who wrote (6430)	4/20/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9068

Hello Mr. Perfette: I think the CTXS PR for Monday 4-19 would be very well received by potential new investors; and would likely induce them to buy in. I am disappointed that the opening wasn't stronger upward. 2 years ago MSFT had the position to shotgun CTXS while it was still in the cradle. A rumor back then dived CTXS sharply, with a rebound after it was not true. MSFT has managed to botch the release of NT 5.0 for several years now. That has allowed CTXS time to work. The relationship to MSFT remains a jeopardy to CTXS, although with the antitrust issues, MSFT would have to be extraordinarily stupid to strong arm CTXS out of business now. The reference to a wash with the raising of major capital, then a major buyback on the heels of a split and a stock price nearly half its high is a little odd. For existing shareholders it is a swap of debt for a somewhat higher stock price. It is a positive that the terms of the debt seem favorable and it was at a time they did not need the money--you should be able to get the better terms in those circumstances. I believe CTXS did. But the buyback through financing. It elevates price but at increased liability--that should largely be a wash to existing shareholders. But to incentive option holders, it would be a way to raise the value of employee options by increasing the stock price through a finance transaction. I would rather the money have been used to increase returns on investment. But CTXS already has a large amount of cash. Relative to the cash, the marketing expense and administrative expenses are the major operating costs. The total development dollars for new products is much less than the interest on the cash. Developing product is a very minor cost for CTXS. A few million dollars. Many other firms can afford a few million dollar efforts, too. It strikes me that competition could heat up from just about anywhere. The internet application for VDO, for example, why schedule that for delivery for something like $1.8M delivery in mid A.D. 2000? Why not complete that in the next quarter or two with a few more dollars. Why not more aggressively accelerate the product? Is it that sterile of an environment for the VDO client to give it over a year foward launch? I think the CTXS execs have shown some long tooth in a potentially devastating environment and have had the luxury of time to gain a foothold. That's a good exercise period for them to learn the ropes. They remain at the mercy of MSFT, yet. I would like to see that tooth applied more vigorously to building the business independent of MSFT broad shoulders. I'd like to see a stock price in the 40's to 50's. I am having a hard time getting a sense of when that might be. The stock seems to be languishing. But as it languishes it looks like a marvelous opportunity to trade for 1 to 3 points a day if one can get in synch with the swings for the most part. In summary, I cannot put my finger on a single specific factor. There are several circumstance that give me the "I might be in the prolonged 'ick' " with my position in CTXS--where am I stuck or should I wait is the key question. And I cannot count yet on a 5 year horizon. MSFT or other OS's might loom in that timeframe as major factors outside of CTXS control that could substantially affect the business adversely. I can't chalk this up to enterprise computing software is down. The numbers for CTXS dispel that in black and white. Meanwhile, it almost looks like if the present pattern holds, there may be a few weeks to months of buy below 30 and sell at 32 for nice returns. If this pattern holds for 2 weeks after Monday's 4-20 report, I would hazard that would be the best strategy for me to realize a better return on CTXS...and hope it doesn't break majorly while I nickel and dime positions that way. I hope that helps perspectives. Not much is clear and the stock is not trading as I would have expected it to trade. I am left puzzling over what to make of it all. Best regards, m An afterthought. The late night TV infomercials sell cheap products to produce and the major expense is selling the products. It bothers me that CTXS's cost structure parallels that structure. But there is a sharp separation between late night trinkets and software development. Trinkets are cheap to develop, and severely marked up over cost to pay for the hard sell. Good software is an elegant development, which remains the elusive grail of most software companies. Hardware still overcompensates for weak software. I am not trying to equate CTXS with late night TV hypesters. I just don't like the late night cost structure, and unfortunately CTXS has that shape at this time. I wish CTXS had more dollars in development and more blocks in a pipeline to broader lay the foundation for their future.

To: David Perfette who wrote (6430)	4/20/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

Re: CTXS and Analysts Lack of Understanding David P. and Thread, If you really want to understand why CTXS is being somewhat held down, listen to the entire CC (link to it was posted yesterday). I did and it is just totally amazing to me how many, "professional," analysts during the Q&A obviously did not even know what CTXS technology was used for. It was almost funny at times because the analysts would word their questions is such ambiguous fashion to disguise the fact they didn't know what the heck Citrix actually did. And to make it even funnier, the CTXS executives answers were so wordy because they didn't want to come out and insult their cheerleaders. It reminded me of that meeting in the Tom Hanks movie, "Big." The scene where a supposedly complex demo was being done and Hanks raises his hand and says, "I don't get it." I think some of the analyst who participated in the CC would have gotten the answers they were looking for if they had just done that. Then the CTXS execs could have felt comfortable explaining to them, in simple terms, what advantages thin client computing offers. I think it should be mandatory that all analyst go to the CTXS demo website at: citrix.com (any analyst reading, make sure you use Microsoft's IE browser to keep it simple) and then click on any of the demos. If the analyst would understand, that the demo programs (MS Word, Excel, Access) DO NOT reside on their computer or personal network (but reside on the CTXS server in Ft. Lauderdale), then they can easily figure out why it's such an incredible product. The only thing that may take a little while to load is the fairly small client software. Once this is loaded, it does not matter if you are connecting with a cable modem or a 28.8 dialup. You can use their demo Microsoft Word, Excel, Access, Powerpoint(!), etc. as if it resided on your own personal hard drive. Now picture being able to do this from the other side of the world, say in Hong Kong, and then it's clear why the product keeps selling as well as it does. I wish all the analyst understood this. But I do have to admit, CTXS does not do the best job of explaining, in very simple terms, the advantages of their software. It's all on their web site, but you have to dig to find it. I think they make it more complicated than it needs to be. Remember how long it took me, via this thread, to finally point out that JAVA is a somewhat competing technology. MikeM(From Florida)