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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bosco who wrote (8499)	4/20/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

""The risks (to the economy) look pretty balanced,'' said Rivlin, in an interview with the newspaper." I think in this case, that's a euphemism for saying "We don't know what is going on, so we're going to stand pat until something hits us over the head." IMO, their next move will be down, but in response to some perceived, or real, crisis. InterNut stocks getting hit doesn't qualify, if anything they will breath a sigh of relief at that. Especially with smaller caps and industrials going up. The A-D line on the NYSE was 2-1 up, pretty amazing, long overdue. Didn't help my depressed tech stocks, though, while my high-fliers were getting clobbered.

To: Bosco who wrote (8499)	4/20/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Hello Bosco, Whether the Fed pretends not to have a tightening bias may not matter if things continue to overheat as they are now. 2 reasons why I think that consumer prices will rise sharply in the next round of data: 1. Oil has risen over 50% from its low, which it sat at for quite a while, skewing months of data. 2. More interestingly, I was quite intrigued by March same-store sales figures released by all the mass-merchandisers such as Wal-Mart, Walgreens, K-Mart, Federated Dept. Stores and all the faves as they sported gains ranging from 7% to 15% in some cases. I have a very difficult time believing that Wal Mart's stores are that strong. Maybe 3% to 5% of their reported rise is attributable to the strength of the company's performance, the other 7% - 10% of the increase has to be price hikes. Wall Street can read between the lines and will proceed with caution upon further releases of data like the above.