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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (119357)	4/20/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 176387

Everyone on this thread knows my opinion -- DELL is a sell -- maybe not a great short -- I like puts instead.

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (119357)	4/20/1999 3:40:00 PM
From: nolimitz	Respond to of 176387

Im holding low 40 stuff. short if you dare... Not this boy nolimitz

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (119357)	4/20/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Kenneth Aird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Shorting Dell has never been a good idea. Dell has faced many challenges much worse than the current price war. The last time Dell touched its 200 day moving average was 1996, and I believe that was the year they had their only quarterly loss due to DRAM inventory problems. They are hardly losing money now. In the commercial segment which is still the bulk of Dells revenue, the price war will actually work to Dell's advantage as they can drop prices faster than anyone else without losing money. Dell is actually initiating the price war in servers and storage in order to undercut the ability of competitors to lose money on desktop PCs and make it up on high priced servers. Michael explicitly stated this plan in his book. In the business market, cost of ownership is far more important than initial purchase price. The total cost of ownership over the life of a desktop PC far outstrips its purchase cost. Dell saves their customers millions just on overhead in their purchasing departments by automating the purchase process, not to mention eliminating the cost of distributing machines to branch offices and loading custom hardware and software. In the consumer market, Dell has a way to go to compete for unit market share with eMachines and Apple. eMachines seems to have a viable model in the form of "disposable" computers. It remains to be seen how loyal their customers will be. Apple has a hit with style and color, but cannot handle the inventory problems posed by indirect distribution of multiple colors. Dell will not have this problem and can provide more customized options at lower prices than Apple. Finally, the Dell model of internet distribution gives them access to market data that indirect vendors cannot get at all, let alone in a timely manner. NEC and Compaq have proven that the indirect vendors will not be able to go direct in the consumer segment (some may eventually manage it in the large corporate market, where direct has been the rule in the past, but not with all the elements of the Dell model). The CEOs of many world class companies regularly ask to meet with Michael Dell to learn the secret of his success. Would they do this if his model were obsolete or they thought he had lost his edge? Is that enough reasons? If not I can go on :) Ken

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (119357)	4/20/1999 3:55:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

byron...shorting dell at this level is a very good strategy....much downside..perhaps single digits...

To: Byron Xiao who wrote (119357)	4/20/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: Eggolas Moria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<<Can someone convince me that with the current sub 1000 PC price war, that one should hold on to the DELL that he purchased in the 40's?>> In uncertain times, people want certainty. It just doesn't happen that way. You have to inspect your holdings and determine within your time frame how the company should perform. Then you can decide how the stock will perform. The shorter your time frame, the more difficult the analysis. I can't tell you whether or not to hold onto your DELL stock and in truth, no one here will feel your pain if it goes down or your happiness if it goes up. What you can get from this board, as difficult as it is sometimes, is an idea of how the company's prospects and challenges are perceived. The rest is up to you. It's your decision. My own belief, FWIW, is that DELL will be entering the sub-1000 area "in force" (Carl Everett's statement) as a means of going after more consumer and small business sales. Will their direct model succeed in this area or will they adjust it a bit, say by using kiosks at a retailer with a direct internet connection and giving the retailer a piece of the transaction (no, I have no idea if they intend to do such a thing). Or will they find another creative way to penetrate a market where first-time buyers tend to have incomes under $50,000 and small businesses have different requirements from large companies? My bet is that they adjust their model. Successfully or not, we will see. Then there is the question of valuation. We could write tomes on that subject and not come to complete agreement. Of course, that is what makes markets. As for shorting a volatile tech stock, I hope you know what you would be doing (and I hope that you have done it before so you know what it is like). I've seen pros short this puppy and cower as soon as it looks like its about to break out, then watch the headfake as it goes down . . . or not sell and watch it climb. Quite frankly, if you have to ask for an opinion on that subject . . . Good luck.