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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: signist who wrote (12844)	4/21/1999 7:57:00 AM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42804

Re: my Gorilla discussions this weekend on how current gorilla can stumble and new ones form. This about MSFT (not copyrighted): zdnet.com Berst Alert WEDNESDAY, APRIL 21, 1999 Why Consumer Appliances Should Scare Bill Gates Silly Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk Jesse's list of Most Frightening Things: Annette before her morning coffee Nicci's desk (think Hurricane Mitch) the words "President Dan Quayle" Bill Gates' list of Most Frightening Things: Steve Ballmer after his morning coffee his own desk (think Hurricane Mitch) the words "Computing Appliances" Spend time at insider conferences and you'll hear near universal agreement that computing appliances -- information appliances, consumer devices, call them what you will -- threaten the health of the Wintel alliance and the industry that grew up around it. Today's giants -- Microsoft, Intel, Compaq -- are ill-prepared for the approaching sea change. I told you last fall that the PC era is ending. That three new devices will take the momentum away from the desktop systems that have dominated computing for the past 15 years. Click for more. Now you're about to live it. With America Online set to deliver screen phone devices as part of its "AOL Anywhere" strategy, this tidal wave is about to hit the shore. Click for more. And it will translate into a wide variety of products -- NetTVs, game consoles, digital VCRs, Internet terminals and more. Three things are driving the trend: Simplicity and ease of use: Because they don't try to be all things to all people, consumer appliances can perform a few tasks well. AOL is banking on screen phones to woo consumers who would never buy a PC, but might consider a simple device for email or Web surfing. Cost: Trying to be all things to all people -- the desktop PC approach -- means you have to have a robust, flexible device. A consumer appliance can be streamlined for one job. Diversity: Cheap, simple information appliances are a natural for vertical applications. Just imagine how valuable they will be in medicine, education, home banking, industry, science, research. Sounds promising. Why is it so frightening for Bill Gates? Because Microsoft is behind. Its Windows CE operating system doesn't make the grade. It doesn't have any killer applications for the new platform. And it doesn't have any skills building stylish, ultra-friendly consumer products. Just as Gates had to reposition Microsoft for the Internet years back, he now has to reposition it for the post-PC era. And it won't be easy. How's this for irony: Apple may have a head start on Microsoft, judging from the iMac. And there's still plenty of money. Microsoft has $19 billion in the bank already and as Liz reports in today's Need to Know section, the Redmond giant continues to turn in stellar earnings. Click for more. It will continue to milk monopoly profits from Windows and Office for years. So don't mistake me. Desktop PCs will be important -- indeed essential -- for years to come. But even today's PC loyalists will soon be buying computing appliances instead of second or third PCs. Do you agree that Bill should be frightened? Use the TalkBack link to send us your thoughts, or join my Berst Alerts forum. And do it now. Or I'll hide Annette's coffee thermos and send her over to your office. And then you'll be frightened too. MORE YOU SHOULD READ... Smart Devices: Smart Features Consumers to Go 'Tech' in 1999 High-Tech Rejuvenation