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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11585)	4/20/1999 5:43:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, There seems to be quite a bit consensus that the tech rebound is not to be trusted. Ralph Bloch for instance said yesterday that the chance of a "v-shaped rebound in netstocks occurring was between zero and nil.on all the stock-specific threads, cries of "it's over" can be heard. on cnbc all sorts of interviewees proclaim uncertainty. so maybe, just maybe, we should trust the recovery for now (and implicityly the message sent by the OEX p/c ratio). I retyped your post because I think you made some interesting points. I must admit that I don't really follow too many stock threads. But it is not surprising to hear investor's sentiment become bearish. This recent downdraft has been swift and painful. And because of that it only makes sense that many will feel that this bull run is over. Of course that logic is a great contrary indicator to where prices may ultimately be headed. The main problem that I see with viewing the markets in this way is one has to honestly ask themselves if their analysis is causing them to lead or be led by the market volatility. Of course the market has taken a hit recently. But after an almost 1000 pt advance in two weeks some sort of retracement is only warranted. Look at some of the companies that have been hit the hardest - RNWK last week hit a high of 263, yesterday it hit a low of 127 but believe it or not last month the low was 70. Plus yesterday it dropped 41 while today it rose 52, hitting a completely higher high. So I really do believe one has to view things in the context of the bigger picture. That why Ralph may be wrong here. If any sector in the market is capable of pulling off a v-bottom it is the net group. Stocks like AMZN and YHOO have held up pretty well here. In fact many of the gaps across the board have been filled which is great technically. The atmosphere you describe above is perfect for a continuation of this bull run. Of course I will be watching for the stabilization of prices at this level. Good trading. SO

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11585)	4/20/1999 8:30:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

This is the fourth time in two months that the Nasdaq has fallen below the 50-day moving average and recouped to the the moving average. Most of the major tech stocks bounced off of their 50-day moving averages. The markets are basically recirculating money trying to keep the bull afloat. On down days, the breadth is positive. The up days, it is negative. Today, on a decent up day, there were 4 times as many Wilder RSI and Stochastic sells, about 12% of the stocks, in the S&P 500 as there were buys, only 2.5%.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11585)	4/20/1999 8:38:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson	Respond to of 99985

Heinz, just the kind of scepticism the nutz need. Bloch was mega bullish early last week-- rising wedge, etc. He has no clue. Then again, few do.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11585)	4/21/1999 8:06:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

PUT/CALL ratios for april 20 CBOE total: 0,54 individual equities: 0,42 OEX: 1,53 VIX: 26,93 ind. equities call vol.: 500,002(-210,914) put vol.:208,871(-46,936) OEX call vol.: 24,128(-2,630) put vol.: 36,808(-27,415) call speculation in individual issues has abated markedly. this is astonishing as yesterday was 'rebound day' and suggests that the 'dead cat bounce'-theory is widely believed. the OEX ratio, while having declined from it's most recent extremes, is still firmly in bullish territory. the decline in the VIX reflects the cessation of the acute panic-buying in puts of late. as long as the VIX declines gently, the decline can also be interpreted as bullish as it shows a slow unwinding of fear which should lead to more confidence on the part of potential buyers. all in all an encouraging picture for the bulls, short-term. hb