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To: BigBull who wrote (42786)4/20/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: upanddown  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
there is a tremendous amount of STATISCAL NOISE in the
momentary fluctuations of any given security


True, but wouldn't you rather have a 7 9/16 cost-basis rather than 8 1/8 ? Actually, I would rather have the 7 1/4 of my limit order.<g> Makes it a lot easier to get into a profit position. I think that the people who have had success trading this sector still need to be convinced traders will be shooting themselves in the foot from now on. As a example (admittedly biased), take RIG. I traded it 5 times since 9/14/98. Average return 29%, annualized return 400%, 60% of the time out of RIG. Buy and hold since 9/14/98 - 8% loss.

RIG may be a bad example but this chart dating back a full year also surprised me.
tscn.com
Using MACD (basically playing the trends) RIG had a 22% return from 10 trades in 12 months. A buy and hold strategy for a year would have lost close to 50%.

Best,
John