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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (25539)	4/20/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

I think this play will be better than the bonds and S&Ps

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (25539)	4/21/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

GZ, Your oil short, based on TA or FA? I'd say the Funnymentals are against you shorts on this one, but then, personally, I don't do oil futures, so I am not offering advice, but asking out of curiosity. I am riding the wave$ with oil equities, however. Best Regards, Roebear

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (25539)	4/21/1999 11:21:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

GZ, Just a bit of explanation of those funnymentals. Feel free to shoot holes I like hearing opposite opinions. The damage done to the supply of US/Canada oil and gas wells was real. This may have been MO of OPEC in oversupply anyway, to knock out the marginal producers. Hence the US and others more dependent on OPEC supply. The wells are not like spigots that can be turned on and off, once plugged they are usually done for good. Here is an excerpt from a RIG thread post that touches on this aspect (one of many) of the FA argument for higher oil prices this year: "Field depletion and production shut-ins did not wait for news of OPEC's compliance or non-compliance with their most-recently announced cuts, they happened as a matter of fact. For the most part, they cannot be undone. For the time being, OPEC / NOPEC adherence to >75% of pledged reductions -- a fairly sober estimate -- should be adequate to keep a seventeen dollar floor under WTI, blips excluded, and Brent at that price by this summer seems not unlikely." Best Regards, Roebear