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Biotech / Medical : Oncothyreon -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William Whitehead Jr. who wrote (580)	4/20/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: StockMiser	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2344

Today's movement was nice to see, and just a tiny little taste of what a real news story could do for us. This was really news about upcoming news. So the upside has just started. On a sidenote... I noticed the recent ASCO published studies that demonstrated little efficacy using stem cell treaments along with chemo for breast cancer. I'm sure many patients were deeply disappointed by this finding. I hadn't considered, up until today, that this may put Theratope in the spotlight. If Theratope along with stem cell treatment DOES demonstrate efficacy, it could put Biomira on the map in a big way. According to my research, Theratope is the single most promising treatment for breast cancer that can be on the market in the shortest amount of time. There are many ASCO studies for treaments in early stage trials, but Theratope is in final phase III. The combination of an effective treatment that is also due for final FDA approval as soon as next year could be very very news-worthy. This ASCO study will also give us another good look at some data. Perhaps it will remind investors that BIOM has a vaccine at least 3 times more effective than Herceptin, which was only approved last year. We know there are no side-effects, so the only obstacle in the way of FDA approval is efficacy. We also know the FDA is eager to approve new cancer treaments, so long as they are more effective in some way to existing treatments. This is why I believe we've got a 95% chance of FDA success. With that approval comes a market worth at least $150 million/year (first year, increasing to over $500 million by year 4). If Theratope is more effective than Herceptin, it should gain very fast acceptance amongst doctors, and I can see it being used in combination with many existing treatments (such as chemo and herceptin). The other study applying Theratope to ovarian cancer, will also be very interesting to see. If Theratope was only effective on breast cancer, we'd be looking at a potential world market over $500 million/year. If Theratope works on other cancers, such as cervical and ovarian, all market numbers have to be at least doubled. Using the Merrill forward discount, this puts fair value in 12 months at $13/share (from the $6.50 Merrill target). This ain't hype, it's just a very conservative valuation based on potential earnings. As the chances of FDA approval increase, the discount decreases, so this is even more conservative. These 2 little ASCO studies could very well demonstrate just how undervalued a stock we have here. I know that everyone wants to hype the BLP-25 super vaccine. But I have always believed that it's Theratope that will increase our investor value. By the time BLP-25 is moving into phase III trials, we'll be a $30-50 stock...(maybe it will boost us to $75..lol). SM