To: Raymond who wrote (2825 ) 4/20/1999 6:41:00 PM From: LLCoolG Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 5843
Raymond, I wholeheartedly disagree with your qualitative statements with the execption that people should not get carried away. You should have just stayed quiet. At its current level 170-180, RNWK has "corrected" about the same as the other leading Net stocks. The severity of the increase today was due only because of the severity of the decrease the last few days. The knife cuts both ways. If the stock runs over 200 tomorrow, I will probably sell my shares, or perhaps buy puts to hedge my position. Like I said, it goes both ways. If it runs another 30 tomorrow, that is just as illogical as the 100 point drop in 4 days. If the rest of the Net stocks run tomorrow, RNWK should as well. But it should take a few weeks before the Street really wants to run them again--it cannot happen this soon to the group as a whole. The earnings report was about what you would expect from an Internet Core Holding company, a blue-chipper. Nothing spectacular, but solid nonetheless. Revenue growth in total, and due to increased advertising is great. In addition, sequential revenue growth of 17%, when a lot of Net stocks show poor Q1 totals, shows that Real will not succumb to seasonality constraints put on e-commerce companies. This is from a preliminary look at reports and numbers, not a look at the percentage of G&A to revenues and gross profits, which will tell us more about the quality of the management and the potential for future profitability. This said, I would be very happy if the stock consolidated around the 170-190 level for the remainder of the week, and possibly beyond. If it bases here, it WILL run to 300+ the next time the Street decides to goose the Net stocks, which I firmly believe will happen again before June 30, as the history of the past 8 months would tell us, barring complete market chaos. Let's not get carried away, but I think there is no reason neither panic nor take profits here. I also think that if the stock continues to run away tommorrow without the leaders coming with it, it will come back here. The deals announced this week were just too good for the Street to even think about giving up on this company for a while. Congratulations, it would appear that RNWK is joining the ranks of the core internet companies. While most longs who did not sell last week may be kicking themselves, remember why we hold this stock. Today's report confirms it, and the next few months will play it out. All in my opinion, for better or worse. Regards, G