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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Bid.com International (BIDS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SirVinny who wrote (23248)	4/20/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: Sulayman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 37507

I was at RBCs annual meeting with analyst Edward Keschner of Paine Webber. He had some very interesting things to say. For those who don't know who he is, he is one of the senior partners of Paine Webber and is on their Investment Policy Committee. He has also been consistently mentioned many magazines and news shows such as Fnn as one of the Gurus of Wall Street. He has also beat the S&P every year for over a decade and his last years projections have earned a 67% increase. In short...he is the real deal, not a nickel and dime wannabe-analyst like Adam Adamou. His comments were the following: -The internet is going to be much bigger than what everyone thinks. He compared it to the linking of the railways in the US and the enormous economic gains reaped by it. However, most internet companies will fail if they do not ave a good model. EG: Early computer makers were commodore, Tandy, etc.. Dell was in High School and CPQ hadn't even gone public till '83. The difference was a sound bbusiness model. Bid.com has such a good business model ( no detail required plenty available elsewhere) -Many analysts talk of inflation but they are way off. The thing to look for is not inflation but Deflation. And a benign deflation at that. According to Mr. Kerschner, prices are falling due to increased technological innovation and competition. He is of the opinion that this is a time to continue to invest in stocks that may reap the rewards of such a scenario. These would oviously be the companies that are doing the innovations and are part of the new technology. During US history there have been several periods of inflations and many of deflation. The effect of the Deflation is to prolong the upward cycle of economic activity and he did this by demonstrating with many graphs. Another factor to be taken into account in this case was the age of investors. He showed numbers which seemed to indicate that investment activity among Baby boomers will not peak until 2007. Until then they will be a force in the market to help sustain it. -GDP is a common theme among analysts and Mr Kerschner proved that it is irrelevent what the GDP numbers are. He did this by showing several years of GDP numbers. The most notable among those years was 1985 when the GDP figure was originally shown to be around 1.9%, revised several times it went as low as -0.3% and then finally all the way up to 4.3%. This was just one of the many examples that he gave to prove his point that noone really knows what the GDP is until about 4-5 years after the fact. Another point made about GDP was its composition of sales and inventories. He showed a graph demonstrating a more or less smooth line when reffering to aggregate sales. "sales don't jump 5% one year and then 5% down the next" The real indicator of movement in GDP if at all is the inventories. Whatever is produced is either sold or stored as investory. However, with Just in time delivery and many other technological innovations that make it possible for companies to carry minimum inventory have made the GDP figure even more obsolete. -A question was asked about trade defecits and his response was: It really is not important because it is not accurate. Many US companies produce abroad and then also sell abroad. These numbers are not filtered into the trade defecit account. Services such as consultancy are also a major US export and they too are not accounted for. He used himself as an example in that respect and said that noone at customs put a stamp on his forehead when he came over to Canada and he did get paid a hell of a lot to do so. -None of the PC box makers are on their list. CPQ was but upon their downgrading, it was removed. They are somewhat of a cyclical stock and summer is not usually a good time for them. However, you can expect to see a surge in sales when Microsoft distributes its windows 2000. -Y2K is a nonissue. He compared it to the Dow Jones 10,000 problem where analysts were predicting that upon hitting 10,000, the five digit number would cause computers to drop the one at the beginning and D Jones would start at 0 all over again. This would lead to a collapse of financial software around the world. As we saw, no such thing happened. He stated that the US government is mostly compliant as are the most important parts of the economy. The only stocks that have been negatively by the Y2k so far have been those that deal with making companies Y2K compliant. Those companies stocks peaked some months ago and are now down sharply (understatment). He also showed his research done through Gallup and it showed that most Americans don't care much about it. -Finally, the market is perfect shape and is an ideal position to take advantage of all those factors. He did however say that some stocks have gotten ahead of the game by 10-15%. They may retreat or they may not. However, within a short period of time they will be at reasonable value and then over the next year they will again rise to new highs. Specially techs. Allow me to answer questions that I anticipate before they come in droves. I AM NOT THE ANALYST. I AM NOT AN ANALYST. I AM MERELY RELAYING INFORMATION THAT I HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO HAVE WITNESSED FIRST HAND FROM A HIGHLY RESPECTABLE SOURCE. ANY INDIVIDUALS THAT MAY DISAGREE WITH ANYTHING IN THIS TEXT...DON''T BUG ME, I DON'T CLAIM TO HAVE ANY SUCH ANSWERS. GO TALK TO PAINE WEBBER,RBC OR EDWARD KERSCHNER, ALTHOUGH I DOUBT HE WILL HAVE THE TIME.