Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SteveG who wrote (1796)	4/24/1999 2:46:00 AM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1998

excerpt from CSFB: ADSL pricing is becoming increasingly more competitive as RBOCs try to win customers. As the table below illustrates, there is a wide discrepancy between the ADSL pricing plans currently offered by the RBOCs and GTE. BellSouth offers the lowest priced bundle of services. For $49.95 per month, including Internet access, customers can sign up for ADSL connections that are guaranteed at a speed of 1.5 mbps. SBC is running at a close second, offering service for $39.00/month at a speed of 384 kbps and Internet access for an additional $10 per month. SBC says that while it only guarantees service at 384 kbps, it believes that three out of every four customers will actually receive service at a speed of 1.5 mbps. RBOC & GTE ADSL Pricing BellAtlantic BellSouth SBC USWest GTE Installation fee $99.00 $99.00 $198.00 $149.95 $99.00 Connection fee $110.00 Modem (equipment) $99.00 $199.00 $95.00 Included Monthly access price: 256 kbps $40.00 $60.00 384 kbps $39.00 $99.00 640 kbps $39.95 768 kbps $76.80 $135.00 1.5 mbps $59.95 $49.95 $120.00 $210.00 Internet service $10.00 Included $10.00 $19.95 100 hrs Incl. 1999 net sub goals: NA 100,000 200,000 100,000 50-80,000 % of total access lines 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2%-0.3% Source: CSFB and company data. 1. Bell Atlantic's installation and modem fees are based on customers that sign one year contracts for BEL's Internet access service. In select markets customers receive a $50 rebate off of the $99 modem price. Installation and modem prices are significantly higher without a one year contract. 2. Price is for Complete Choice customers. Monthly fee for non Complete choice customers if $59.95. 3. Although SBC guarantees its 384 customers speeds of 384 it believes that 3 out of 4 of its customers will actually receive 1.5 kbps. Similarly, SBC believes that 3 out of 4 of its 1.5 mbps customers will actually recieve 6 mbps. 4. USW customers can opt to install the ADSL modem themselves for no fee.

To: SteveG who wrote (1796)	4/24/1999 10:05:00 PM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1998

q1 99 cc 04/19/99 hi steve and all, some notes/rough transcription from the orct cc, fwiw.. a couple of analysts tried their best to get tamir to divulge something on the jpc second supplier situation... to no avail.. : "can you elaborate on when in your estimation you will be able to get another us customer? in terms of just an order, not a shipment? we are in the process of trying to convince most of the telephone companies in the us to use our equipment... to the best of my knowledge there is not even one major supplier that has selected two ... sorry ... one major telephone company that has selected two suppliers... so i think that everything is open .. it's taking longer than everybody expected... i believe that this year in 1999, most of the telephone companies will decide who are their suppliers... we think that we are positioned well to get more accounts in the us... together with fujitsu " and "are you seeing any increased activity in second source suppliers among the jpc members ? the activity is there all the time, i don't see any increased activity .. when i say activity they are looking at different. solutions... they evaluate the solutions ... for example one of the differentiators of orckit and fujitsu is fact that we have both frame relay and atm solutions and nice migration for each one of them... this is one of the things that are evaluated by the rbocs.. i don't see more intensive activity relative to what we saw in the last few months... " --- in general sounds like all is more or less on track... will post some hdsl stuff later, besides those, my favorite parts: dt: "The two highlights of the quarter is the initial delivery to dt and the availability of the new adsl chipset, the keywave.. orckit was selected in september 98 as one of the three suppliers, the first supplier to dt... dt say that they will start their large scale deployment or the service of the adsl the first of april (?)... we met their milestones and ... we start the shipment of the adsl equipment to dt towards the very end of the quarter... during the cebit exhibition the management of dt declared that they are going to deploy during this year 100,000 adsl lines... we believe that the ramp-up in dt together with the growth of gte and other customers will actually be the drive for our growth in the near future , in the next qtr, and in the coming quarters... the system that we supplied to dt is a complete solution... atm end-to-end ... this is not only a hardware platform, this is complete system solution... the system includes atm end-to-end , network management system, and some other features that are essential for a large scale deployment ... " --- tenders/rfp's... this will be the year the stage is set... as expected both lu and fujitsu are working with orctf... (lu seems to have moved up in profile): "right now we are participating around the world in many competitive processes for adsl systems (tenders)... in some of the cases we provided bids together with fujitsu, in some of the cases with lucent, in other accounts it is bids with both lucent and fujitsu ... or sometimes alone... we believe based on the history that it takes between 1 qtr to 4 months for most of the companies to start large scale deployments after the selection... so we believe that this year is going to be the year that most of these accounts are going to select either the first supplier or sometimes the second supplier in the us(a)... in some accounts they select immediately two or three suppliers.. and the ramp-up will start towards the end of the year and the beginning of the next year... " --- the keywave adsl chip sounds like it is now available, and work on integration into product is proceeding as planned (fwiw.. the press release referred to the forthcoming keywave-based fastinternet dslam as "next generation dslam system"): "the second highlight in this quarter is the availability of the chip ... we have been saying since 97, that the key avenue in our cost reduction is the availability of the new generation chipset... we said since 1997 that we expect this chip to be available in q1... we indeed met our milestone ... the chip is now available with (?) after testing in japan and in england ... and the main focus of orctf right now is the integration of the chip into the product in order to get into mass production of the new product with the new chip in the second half of the year... this is the key point for our cost reduction.. activity... once the chip is available, the level of risk.. reduce significantly and become a standard risk in any development ... the chip is the most integrated chip in the industry... it includes both g.lite, central office solution, customer premises solution , it enables high density in the central office, support both atm and frame relay and ip... we believe that this chip will be sold in the open market by fml successfully and this will contribute also to our revenues of licensing towards the end of the year... " --- vdsl chipset (orctf/hrs) is about to arrive (this qtr), vdsl product with the new silicon is scheduled to ship in q3, and fujitsu seems very involved : "... regarding the vdsl market and the development... orctf is participating in different trials for vdsl... we strongly believe in the vdsl market... this quarter we will receive a new generation chipset... a very integrated chipset of the vdsl ... it has four modems on one chip that enables a very cost effective vdsl solution .. we are now integrating the chip into the product.. that will be available in the second half of the year ... probably at the beginning of q3 ... this product is going to be provided by fujitsu to their customers and by other accounts as well.. we believe that with the availability of this new, very integrated product this will be one of the drivers of the vdsl market to take off.." the product that is scheduled to ship is only for trials (from q&a), vdsl for deployment middle of next year at the earliest: "ok, and what about vdsl? vdsl, i don't believe vdsl will take off this year... we are now in the stage of trial.. we have seen from the hdsl market and adsl market that once you are in the stage of the trial it takes.. at least a year before you start to see a real deployment in the units of 100's... so not before the year 2000 ? so the middle of 2000 is probably...? the earliest... yes." --- it will be interesting to see what the vdsl product will be.. a press release from last year (adsl) probably pointed the direction: "The FastInternet can migrate into the Full Service Access Network (FSAN) architecture required by Deutsche Telekom. Fujitsu, a leader in the field of fiber optic equipment, will integrate FastInternet into its Optical Line Terminations (OLTs) and Optical Network Units (ONUs) for this future architecture." also as you probably know fujitsu/orct were involved with limited vdsl trials with dt last year --- til later s