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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11689)	4/21/1999 12:02:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Taking that AAII bullish percent figure on face value is meaningless. The graph below charts the survey alongside the market index. What it tells you is that members were most bullish in January, then as the market corrected, bullishness receded steadily. As in 1998, most members missed the secondary top three months latter, last year in July, this year April. decisionpoint.com It appears that on secondary tops, two kinds of people are bearish. Those who correctly timed the move up, and those who missed it and are determined to wait for a correction or major pullback.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11689)	4/21/1999 12:08:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

heinz blasnik: Thanks for the info behind your expectations. It always helps to know some facts, figures and or TA absolutes behind the analysis to better understand. When individuals (not talking about you or anyone in particular) proclaim a view only, it is much the same as gut feels. It is hard for some to evaluate the analysis by following up on the criteria for the view, thus either jumping on the bandwagon or challenging the position. I believe that when major brokerage houses cut equity allocations, it is time to run up the warning flags. They are often early, but you know they are protecting their core investors and prepping to cover their back. Talking heads are a different story...<g> Regards, LG Disclaimer: My posts are my opinions only and I reserve the right to be wrong on occasion. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions.