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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (35152)	4/21/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

I guess we disagree, but thanks for watching out for my well-being.<g>. While I understand your long gold position, a US equity crash will put a bid to the dollar IMO and, yes, being short bonds could cost me some money. I'm playing the interest rate differential, continued slow growth in Japan and MOFs desire for export growth at the expense of the yen. The continued rise in oil, commodity prices and cyclical stocks argues against your case for a crash. Yes, stocks are overvalued, but a 1000 pt drop is only 10% and would probably hurt the Euro and Yen more. In reference to your #reply-8989184 , without a replacement reserve currency, the dollar should remain strong since I believe any US "crash" would be quickly transmitted to the other bourses and the flight to safety is the US long bond and possibly gold. Mostly I'm betting on the Apr.30 release of US real GDP coming in above the 3.5% expectations (up from 3.3% last week), higher NAPM numbers, a strong employment report May 7 and continued corporate debt issuance. In other words, rising real growth, higher prices, more debt, a lackadasical Fed, and that the Big Kahuna remains a myth.