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To: JRI who wrote (119588)	4/21/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: Fangorn	Respond to of 176387

John, re >I think the year 2000 could be a cracker for worldwide growth...will be interesting to see where inflation/interest rates go (after the millenium)< Imagine the effect when all those expecting the end of the world next year realize it didn't happen and start converting the gold they have buried into productive assets. Probably won't help the price of gold but... VBG

To: JRI who wrote (119588)	4/21/1999 2:28:00 PM
From: JRH	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

slower economic growth, lower oil prices, etc...ie., a continued counter-balance in the inflation fight... You mentioned lower oil prices. What is your theory there? JRH

To: JRI who wrote (119588)	4/21/1999 2:41:00 PM
From: Dorine Essey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi John, Looks like DELL may close UP today. Now up over 38.00. Dorine

To: JRI who wrote (119588)	4/21/1999 4:19:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi John,..Re:.the Euro is really turning out to be a putz here, and doesnt look (IMO) to get much stronger in the near-term (3-6 mos.)...the Yen, of course, is also under great pressure to depreciate vis-a-vis the dollar, or at least stay weak The Euro - I agree that given the recent IMF Economic forecast for Europe that the Euro will be under pressure. Also, I think it's a big problem to have a Central European Monetary Policy without a Central government. For instance, countries like Ireland which are doing well may be at risk for the recent 50 basis point ease of policy which was more for the benefit of Germany and slowing growth participants. As for the yen, heard on CNBC very early that Japan issued a LARGE supply of bonds this morning and stated that they intended to keep rates low. As you know currency strength tends to follow interest rates so that may keep the yen under pressure also. Couldn't find the story but did find a site for rates. boj.or.jp In the meantime, the Fed is buying down government debt and the budget deficit is on target to be $100 billion end of year. This combined with our higher rates should keep the dollar well bid for some time. Message 9059612 Fed says second coupon pass totalled $1.064 bln dismal.com The federal government is on track to post a surplus of around $100 billion this fiscal year, substantially larger than the $70 billion surplus recorded for 1998. As for the trade deficit, Abby explained that our exports are mostly high margin, high tech, high dollar value items whereas, our imports are mostly manufactured items or items made by manual labor or low tech enterprises. Best, Lee