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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AD who wrote (31827)4/21/1999 4:37:00 PM
From: J.Y. Wang  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 122087
 
<NSOL>

Let me give you a very quick analogy of why NSOL is really screwed.

Imagine if the judge in the MSFT trial ruled that he is going to make MSFT's operating systems available to its competitors in order to dilute the power MSFT has over the market. Keep in mind that the monopoly MSFT has is earned while the monopoly NSOL has is given. This is important because that means MSFT's products/services have merit on their own; No one knows about NSOL's registration services and whether it can stand on its own in a competitive environment.

So the judge rules that MSFT has to make available its operating systems to its competitors (SUNW, NOVL, IBM, whores-online.com, whatever) *at its R&D cost*. So instead of charging $100 for Win98 and $200 for WinNT, MSFT can only charge its competitors, say, $10 for Win98 and $20 for WinNT.

Two things will happen: 1) MSFT will lose some business to its competitors; 2) MSFT will no longer be able to sell Win98 for $100 and WinNT for $200 -- $15 and $30 are probably close to what they would sell it for. This is very similar to what is going to happen with NSOL.

NSOL states in its 10K that its primary business is domain registration. It does some intranet and internet consulting on the side (how much of that business will they lose when it's open season on domain registration?). NSOL is very profitable because it charges outrageous rates for essentially maintaining a database. Not only that, it was given the regular internet P/E ratios (in the hundreds).

So instead of being granted monopoly as its primary business, NSOL will now be in a commodity service industry as its primary business. The difference is huge. NSOL is going down.



To: AD who wrote (31827)4/22/1999 12:26:00 AM
From: HRAKA  Respond to of 122087
 
I'm sorry, I was bored.



To: AD who wrote (31827)4/22/1999 2:23:00 AM
From: Richard Miller  Respond to of 122087
 
Don't forget we shorted NITE also. Ended up 35 points from the short call point. Caller says he made 3 points. I made around 44 long points. We're really playing Russian Roulette lately around here.



To: AD who wrote (31827)4/22/1999 10:54:00 PM
From: Never Hibernate  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 122087
 
Actually the NSOL short made absolutely perfect sense for my portfolio. The thing is that I have about 1/3 of my little tiny portfolio in internuts - much of this because I have 100 AOL and my EXDS that I bought a while back has treated me right. As a result, I endured severe pain on Monday and I was scared that if the sector were to take another severe beating, then I would again feel great pain. The trouble is I did not want to sell, and put options are too expensive, so I thought an NSOL short would be a very good hedge to protect my assets in the event of another meltdown. Of all the internuts out there, NSOL was the most compelling short at the time that would be a good hedge against my longs in AOL and EXDS. As it turned out, AOL went up, EXDS kicked F__King ASS,NSOL went down, and I had a fantastic day! (:

May you all have longs that are up and shorts that are down (;

-NH