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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kona who wrote (11749)	4/21/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

That was a comment from the Ord Oracle column from marketweb.com . A different perspective from the same site from a different analyst follows. This is his 4/15 column which called the Monday/Tuesday turn correctly. WEEKLY CHART TREND: Higher into May 4. DAILY CHART TREND: Topping. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Sideways to higher and then lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/15 H; 4/19 L TURN: 4/20 L; 5/1 H TURN: 10/99 L SWING TRADING POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Sell June e-mini at 1345 with a 1365 stop. DAY TRADER'S PLANNER FOR JUNE S & P: (04/15) Hourly stochastics are very oversold and Thursday has the best chance for a bounce of any of the next 3-4 trading days. While the minimum downside correction is 1330.60, the chance of an acceleration to the 1280 region is possible into next week. Consequently, if you did short the market at 1365.50 on Thursday, we are re-thinking the downside potential and would hold onto that short. We can expect a 11-12 point rally to the 1345-1347 region--and given how weak the market looks Friday and Monday of next week, we are inclined to accumulate from lower levels. Major resistance is at the downtrending line at 1363 and that level is likely to hold even if we have a surprise. (04/15) If the S & P cash can start taking out the 1312 region, it would start to confirm topping action and indicate that the May 1 cycle high is a secondary high. That still could mean a new high for the DOW if it holds the projected pullback area to the 10230 region. That would mean a new high at about 10640 by the time we are all done. It's difficult to make a case for pattern completion on the DOW. Because the DOW is lurching forward on the fumes of media hype and public exuberance, it does have a chance to accelerate and telescope even as fewer and fewer new stocks make highs. CYCLES: The 12-year optimism cycle (that has generated this rally) does not really shift until after May 22, and if the market cannot fall much into April 19 or April 27, I suspect it will grind higher into May. Any confirmation on a top may be slow to come. Next minor cycle high is probably April 15, with a pullback into April 19-20 and a secondary low into April 23. Cycle highs are due into May 1-4. BIGGER PICTURE: It will take two more new highs to make a stronger case for a pattern completion off of the October low. Weekly chart patterns are even suggesting a chance of a move to 10900-11,000. Once we do top, we do think that we will have to fall and DOW 7400 appears to be the mostly likely target this summer. I do not think we will see such levels for many years again so do not get caught up in media hysteria or hopes that it will bounce back. OEX NOTES: (04/15) Exit puts on a retracement into April 19 and re-enter puts starting around May 3-4. OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade against the major weekly chart trend.