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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1409)4/21/1999 11:03:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
Based on information published in TWO articles at CNET, I expect Siebel shares to soar tomorrow, making today's market action in Qualcomm look like a walk in the park.

Siebel yesterday posted first-quarter profits that more than doubled to $134.1 million ... from $9.7 million...

I hope no one figures out the error in that tidbit of misinformation. :)

--Mike Buckley



To: Mike Buckley who wrote (1409)4/21/1999 11:18:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley  Respond to of 54805
 
Help me out, folks. At what point do we determine that Vantive and Clarify have no remote possibility of becoming a gorilla?

Take a look at the licensing revenue for Q1:

Vantive - $22 million (pre-announced, not yet official)
Clarify - $24 million
Siebel - $93 million

If Siebel stumbles to the same extent that Clarify and Vantive have stumbled, their licensing revenue could be cut in half. If at the same time Vantive and Clarify doubles their licensing revenue they would remain in the gorilla hunt.

My hunch is that it's still a little too early to count them out of the gorilla game. Do you folks agree?

--Mike Buckley