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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Koch who wrote (5011)	4/22/1999 4:47:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8218

I am more convinced than ever that after the sales teams went to sleep late in the fourth quarter 98 and caused the Server Group to miss it's numbers that Gerstner ordered the marketing GMs to over-assign quota to such an extent that no one could possible make it before the end of the quarter when these numbers were probably adjusted down. This is one reason it appeared the quarter finished strong. Strong end of quarter shipments and adjusted numbers brought it better into focus. But "pros" really dont have any better way to separate quotas from what is really needed for a quarter. I am sure that IR gives guidance on earnings to some degree by questioning an analysts model if he/she is way off target which sends the right signals but disecting the world's most complex business in the fastest growing industry is virtually impossible. When the MS analyst made his late March warning (which sent me over the edge!) I went to the sidelines figuring that others would follow just to hedge their bets but it just made no sense to me that this analyst had any ability to make that call. It was a crap shoot hoping if he was right he could make a name for himself. When there was no follow through and the new trading pattern settled down I repositioned even though I too felt the revenue side could take a hickey. What analysts say is important because it influences markets but I know enough of them to know that they are more often late than right on and we are often better off right here on SI doing our own DD. By the way, Jules' quantitative analysis is not necessarily wrong, it is just being ignored by the desire of investors and institutions to own the highly liquid large cap stocks. If you check his postings he has had some doubles this year based upon my calculations so we all win some and lose some.

To: Jim Koch who wrote (5011)	4/23/1999 12:41:00 AM
From: Earthdog	Respond to of 8218

Jim, You don't have to feel bad for intimating that Jules' last analysis is WRONG. That just happens to be a FACT. I too am like you, "I am just trying to understand how those with such good knowledge of IBM could miss this by so much." I have read his posts for over two years and voiced my opinion of one of his posts one time asking and requesting for FACTs to back up his specious arguments but he never returned a reply. Sorry if I made it sound like you were criticizing Jules. Earthdog