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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommSatMan who wrote (4039)	4/22/1999 6:15:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 29987

Capacity and CURRENT PRICE IS ... Excellent questions CommSatMan and the thing I have been trying to pin down since Feb 1996 when I asked a Globalstar designer here [in New Zealand where he was visiting] whether we would get really cheap minute since the satellites would not be busy, ever, down this way. They will be flat out over China, India, Europe, North America and South American. Sadly, the answer was that we would not enjoy a discount. The reason was that the electricity supply is limited and the electricity would be sold in the high priced markets 20 minutes later - being stored in the battery while passing over NZ. Here is the way I see it working. Initially, the photovoltaic panels are brand spanking new and download a LOT of electricity into the batteries and circuits. Over 7 years, they deteriorate until the satellite is pretty much dead and it's time for the cemetery orbit. Deterioration is quicker initially. So for the first year, there will be heaps of electricity available, especially when the satellite plane is full frontal to the sun and it is in sunshine nearly all 24 hours. The capacity limit will result from battery capacity and circuits available. If the circuits are flat out during satellite night, going over China say, in the early evening in winter when everyone is still at work, when the orbital plane is edge on to the sun, the circuits will be full and the batteries will go flat. There will be both busy signals and flat batteries. After 5 years, the photovoltaics will be getting weak, so let's look at a case where the orbit is edge on to the sun, so half the time it is eclipsed and generating no power. Let's also assume it's winter in China, so peak demand will occur in early evening. The battery won't be fully charged from a flat state due to the weak photovoltaics and perhaps high demand during the daylight trajectory. It then heads into darkness and the Chinese start chattering flat out. Pretty soon the battery is flat and even before that, the circuits will have been full and people trying to call given busy signals. We need some way to smooth this demand so the photovoltaics, batteries, circuits are in balance with demand for situations of new photovoltaics, seasonal and other demographic variations in demand and for satellites either edge on to the sun or full frontal. We obviously need a Central Planning Committee to ration demand. People could be given set times during the day when they can make calls. There are lots of unemployed 5 year planners in Russia who used to organize how many shoes and shoe laces to make and were good at issuing rationing certificates. Another option would be to hold a continuous auction so that as the electricity supply gets lowish or the circuits are getting busy, the price is increased so that non-urgent calls are deferred until a cheaper time. So you see, the capacity is a variable thing. The total minutes available will reduce as the photovoltaics deteriorate. Then there is the interaction between the batteries and circuits. If the circuits are not used enough, the batteries will carry too much charge and electricity will spill to waste during recharging. I guess that Globalstar and Qualcomm have calculated a reasonably accurate figure at 12 billion minutes per year, which will be lumpy. Some satellites at any given time will have lots of minutes available. Others might be out of power and out of minutes. My argument is that ALL the available minutes need to be sold to maximize revenue and profits. They should be priced so low that demand is huge and grows extremely quickly. As demand builds, the price can be increased to a stable level. The current price would be displayed on the handset with the subscriber agreeing to pay by pressing 'SEND'. This would be for the 30% of customers who would choose the "Spot Price Plan" which would give about half the average cost per minute of the "Fixed Price Per Minute Plan" and quarter the "Eat All You Like Plan". Or something like that - maybe a tenth the eat all you like plan. Here is a good little example! • Spot- and auction-pricing will go mainstream. It's already hit the airline business and will soon transform telecom and energy. Soon, even, a can of soda: On the 15th hole of a golf course in July, with heat waves bouncing off the sand trap and your mouth parched, you'll slip a smart card into the pop machine and discover a can costs a fortune—$3.87! The pop machine isn't stupid! However, that same soda may go for 44¢ on a frigid day in February. Most people hate to haggle, you protest. So what? Let your smart card and the pop machine duke it out. From forbes.com Maurice