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Non-Tech : Iomega Thread without Iomega -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 2:37:00 AM
From: Craig Richards	Respond to of 10072

Ken, You're assuming all Clik sales will be for digital cameras. What about Clik for handhelds - do you think Clik will sell into that market, and if not, why not? Regards, Craig

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 7:51:00 AM
From: sheila rothstein	Respond to of 10072

*OT* Re: SI jailbreak... Ken, put the blame where it belongs... this is a thread for opinions, info, earnings projections etc. Rocky Reid who is not wanted here (see header) has ruined the thread with his lies, exaggerations, inflammatory remarks and his constant posting and harassing statements to me and others. All of us would like him removed so we can go back to having normal conversations re IOM. I welcome bears, bulls, shorts longs... not LIARS. SR

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 8:03:00 AM
From: David Colvin	Respond to of 10072

Ken, Thanks for the details on your Clik! sales assumptions. IMO, Your assumptions about Clik! sales related to digital cameras makes as much sense as the next guy's. However, since this is a new product with no historical trends or solid data to draw from, it could be a real wild card with quite different results than either you or I have estimated with the "seat of the pants" methods we have been forced to use for now. I tried to "guesstimate" all possible potential applications of the Clik! drive I could think of and still believe either one of us could easily be off (on the low side) by up to 100% for 1999, depending on the alliances that have been established by Iomega and the effectiveness of their marketing initiatives for Clik!. I was disappointed in Glore's 10% prediction because I KNOW that this will not happen. He is setting up shareholders for another letdown.(IMO). I don't know if I am disappointed or delighted with Glore's 10% prediction.....I'm certainly surprised. The trouble is with my general impression of him so far......I don't think he makes idle threats and therefore tend to not dismiss anything he says as "fluff" nor treat anything he says lightly. I have the distinct impression that Jodie Glore is a "no nonsense" man on a mission and, with his credentials and exemplary past record he brings to the table, he may just succeed. Dave

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 8:27:00 AM
From: David Colvin	Respond to of 10072

Ken, FWIW, another "plausable" Clik! revenue guess from a poster on the Motely Fool web site: boards.fool.com How big could Clik sales possibly be? I saw some data on the digital camera market; my recollection is that the '99 worldwide market was only 4MM units. So; Revenue = Market size (4MM)x market growth (30%)x product price ($200 OEM) x annual price decline (20%)x market penetration rate (15%). I used 15% because how many $300 add ons can you sell with average camera prices at $300; also Clik is competing against 4-5 other technologies. If I'm right, this points to a $125MM business next year growing at 10% the following year. If the PDA business is similar (I know nothing about PDAs), then its a $250MM business growing at 10%. This gives IOM a spurt of growth, but then they have to wait for the digital camera and/or PDA market to grow up. The market penetration could be higher; but only if the price decline is steeper. Also the digital camera market could grow faster; but this also implies rapid price declines in the base product and , hence, the Clik. Why get excited about Clik vs the 100MM unit PC market that Zip is competing for. I've invested in companies before that had exciting new products for emerging markets. I can tell you that it is much better to have exciting new technologies for big/established markets. V.

To: Ken Pomaranski who wrote (9352)	4/22/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: Ken Pomaranski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10072

I screwed up! It was late when I posted ;) I was off by a factor of 10 in my percentages: << The digital cam market is projected to be 4m units in 1999, 10m in 2000, 40m in 2005. I assumed 1% penetration in 1999, and 2% IN 2000. This would actually be about 1/3 the ZIP inclusion rate at ZIP rampup. I also assumed a 3-1 tie ratio >> I assumed TEN PERCENT in 1999 and TWENTY PERCENT in 2000. (actually 400,000 units in 1999, and 1.7m units in 2000) This would be well above the ZIP inclusion rate, and serves as an upper bound in my mind. About inclusion in PDAs: Not in the low end: Too expensive. I'm not sure the 'high-end' PDA market is big enough to make any difference. Also, this power issue needs to get resolved along with this fragile disk issue (can't transport disk in drive, can't write on label, can't put two labels on disk) These issues are fatal in the low-end consumer market. I believe that Glore's 10% revenue for CLIK! is dead wrong. If I am proven wrong, you guys can laugh me off the thread. kp