Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11769)	4/22/1999 9:13:00 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 99985

Heinz, My current position is still for a runup into early MAY, and that we may get a dip by latest Monday. If what you say turns out right in that the market runs real hard and the PUT volume dries out, that dip I am looking for, may turn out to be more than a dip. Per my short-term technicals, if we go up strong today, I will get a CLASS 2 SELL signal, and if we run up today and tomorrow, I will be getting a CLASS 1 SELL signal with the BUY-IN WINDOW for the short side from FRI to MON's highs. If I do get a CLASS 1 SELL signal, the liklihood is that it wont just be a dip but something more significant. I do realise that many are now calling for 11,500 range. I do not think that we will get that high in this time from prior to JULY, but if we do it will be at the expense of another sector like the NAZ. IRA $$$ is basicly over. The image of overseas markets improving is diverting funds out of our markets, so if the DOW hits 11,500 range the money should probably come from the NAZ. Simply put, if one sector is that hot, another sector will probably suffer. EDIT: Im not saying that the DOW cannot head up to 11,500 but I do not think it will happen in the timeframe prior to JULY, maybe after JULY. seeya

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11769)	4/22/1999 9:54:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz and all, Just got CLASS 2 SELL signals on the SPX/OEX/NAZ, if it closes at these levels. It could turn right here or morph into a CLASS 1 by going up tomorrow. So the BUY-IN WINDOW is now until tomorrows highs. seeya

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (11769)	4/23/1999 8:11:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

PUT/CALL ratios for april 22 CBOE tot.: 0,50 individual equities: 0,34 OEX : 2,07 VIX : 23,98 PVI (CBOE tot.): 0,82 PVI (OEX): 0,55 ind.equ. call vol.: 587,961(+19,443) put vol.: 200,522(+9,719) OEX call vol.: 22,398(+1,109) put vol.: 46,426(+18,030) as posted yesterday, i expected a strong upward move to help the p/c ratios to deteriorate further from wednesday's levels. to my surprise, it didn't happen. instead, the conflicting signals prevalent of late continue to persist. the ind.equ. ratio remains bearish, while the OEX ratio once again sits at a bullish extreme. the 10-day moving avg. of the OEX-ratio is in fact at a historic extreme of 1,73. the PVI (calculated by dividing put volume of the day by the 10-day moving average of put vol.) on the OEX has receded somewhat from yesterday's levels, but is still in bearish territory. keep in mind though that the PVI is still distorted by last weeks expiration. i am working at a modified version of the PVI to screen out expiration distortions and will start to post it as soon as it is properly back-tested. it is difficult to draw definitive conclusions from the conflicting ratios, but they probably suggest that both upside and downside potential of the market are currently limited, which would favor option writers over option buyers in the near term. if indeed a period of churning lies ahead, it will be important to watch how option traders react. the recent breakout of the market to the upside was preceded by an increase in pessimism in the later stages of the congestion period (the main piece of evidence being the ind. equ. ratio). view decisionpoint.com to see what i mean. hb