To: The Ox who wrote (42968 ) 4/22/1999 10:40:00 AM From: paul feldman Respond to of 95453
Drilling for dollars: Oil services and oil drilling stocks hit their peaks in November 1997. While they've been on the mend lately, much of the recovery has been attributed to the recent rise in oil prices, and the recent rotation out of techs, rather than a fundamental improvement. But some analysts believe oil and gas prices really are headed higher, and "this sets a tone for the industry," says veteran oil industry analyst Mike Breard of the brokerage firm Dominick & Dominick in Dallas. "If oil companies get more confident that prices will improve, they will possibly revamp their budgets this summer. And if they decide to spend more money on drilling, there will be more demand for drilling rights. Once they've sopped up the excess supply of rigs, day rates [for the use of rigs] will rise substantially." A rig that may have rented for $40,000 a year ago is now at $15,000, "if it's working," Breard says. "So, there's tremendous upward leverage once rights go back to work." Breard, who has a solid following among hedge funds and others that drill for oil stocks, was especially impressed after getting off a conference call last week with Global Marine (GLM:NYSE), an operator of offshore rigs. Specifically, Global said that bid requests at its turnkey division, which rents rigs to oil companies at a fixed price, had hit a record in March. To an industry watcher like Breard, that's a sign that a turnaround in the oil patch is for real. "In the past," he says, "turnkey bid requests have been a reliable indicator of future drilling activity. You take bids in the first week in April, and you may not drill till June. But it indicates that despite the hard times smaller oil companies ran into in the last year or so, they're still interested in drilling wells. And they're becoming more interested in drilling wells." His opinion was reinforced yesterday when Ensco (ESV:NYSE), another offshore driller, said it believes the industry is past the trough of the bottom in the U.S. Beaten-up companies that could benefit, he and others say, include Global Marine, Ensco, Rowan Cos. (RDC:NYSE) and Noble Drilling (NE:NYSE). "It would raise the P/E ratio of the entire industry," Breard says. He adds that "you can't say anything for sure in this industry, but one thing you can say for sure is that every year the rigs are one year old, and nobody is building new rigs." Considering that it'll probably be two years before anybody starts ordering new rigs (assuming the oil industry really does rebound) and that it takes roughly two years to build a rig, Breard believes this could be the first stage of what could be a three- to five-year rebound for oil drillers