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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17760)	4/22/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: Mark Ivan	Respond to of 18056

Shoulda shorted RMBS..... Mark

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17760)	4/23/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 18056

Some random thoughts. Before reading this non-sense, please be advice that my track record since November of last year sucks. So, all this may mean absolutely nothing. ------------------------------------ On Monday I have watched many high flyers. They got whacked for 3-5 bucks on a sell orders of total size 1000-2000. This was also true for the likes of WCOM. If you recall my volume analysis on WCOM, each 1 mil shares resulted in a price decline of only 17 cents where as each 1 mil on the up days caused a price rise of 33 cents. Though it seemed the sellers are not aggressive enough, the reality is there were no buyers when selling was actually stepped-up. So, WCOM mostly traded flat as long as the market was flat to slightly down. But when things turned south, it got whacked even with smaller blocks to sell. From what I understand from Dr. Alexander Elder's book (this is about sentiment, in a sense a TA itself) this is a classic case where Bulls are fearful of higher prices and hence they didn't want to sell. Yet, when you turn around and see what happened on Monday - the opposite case, the fear of lower prices, got materialized in a very short time. I expected a sharp reversal in Nasdaq at the magic 10% down mark. The buying should have come from two sources, newly emboldened bears who got bear-trapped and the sidelined cash of the mo-mo players and traders. Most TA types would perhaps agree with my observation that most charts are so fu*ked up that they can't figure out a thing using traditional TA. OTOH, the likes of POS3 are making new highs, perhaps a nice set-up for the buy on "break-out" crowd. Now it appears that all the short-term money is already committed (shorts covered, or scared to go short again) Mo-MO players are salivating over new highs on AMZN to establish a further leadership etc. etc. (Some are even preaching a "buy and hold" strategy for i-nuts. Duh!) Any how, all this appears to be a big bull-trap, IMO - of course. Again, getting back to Monday's action, the ubiquotus "liquidity" notion was dispelled, at least for a few hours. Mo-Mo traders on margin got a taste of what to expect in terms of margin calls. Yet, they are fearful of higher prices and hence they are not selling. At the same time, I am seeing evidence of lack of new money being committed to this market. As long as the market keeps rising there is no incentive to sell and hence it is not falling. However, the scenario on Moday has proved to me one thing, we are at a stage in this manic run where the sentiment can change at the toss of a dime. Had it been an unrigged market (i.e. no bail outs when something turned sour) this sentiments would not have come to this extreme. As I said many times before, the scared ones now are the bears or those who belive that market can go down faster than it can go up. All we need at this time is a trigger. The trigger doesn't have to be a nuclear explosion. It can very well be a bad auction at the treasuries, or an unspinnable rise in inflation or a rise in competing assets, such as gold. Bottomline, I am thoroughly convinced that this market can not go any higher without a major shakeout! Stay tuned.

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (17760)	4/23/1999 2:21:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 18056

Also this: The odd-ball in me thinks that 1. No leadership in this manic recovery from a real 139 point dung sell-off on Monday. 2. Just as AMZN set new highs, the odds of AMZN re-establishing market leadership to new highs on DUNG are 1 in 10. I think it is just a head-fake. At this time it is in conceivable for me that there is enough new money to be committed to this bloated crap. Then again, we all know I can be wrong forever! -g- 3. Almost nobody dares to short just about anything, which makes it possible that the next time we are at the brink of margin calls, the bulls have to lug-it on their own. It is their fault that they chose to kill the goose that laid golden egg for them! -g- As hard-core bears are sh*t scared to short, the market has much bigger problem than it acknowledges. 4. Rob Paul to pay Peter. That about sums up the market condition. Sell SOX to buy DOT and vice versa. 5. Who will force the Feds to swallow a viagara and show some manliness? Bond traders? Currency traders? Commodity traders? Could very well be bond traders followed by commodity traders. Obviously currency traders are hiding under the safe-haven status of the buck. At least for now.