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To: JRI who wrote (119983)	4/22/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

john...guess with a "record", i can't run for president (drats) world oil tends to be simplified by analyst for they truly don't understand individual country requirements and more finite "in-country" politics which drive production and pricing...venezuela always first to break, whether they are in a good or bad economic cycle...they produce a very desirable low sulphur crude, which is in demand by oil burning utilities... venezuela has been a "cartel" member, since inception, used to have some minor relationship with their "opec minister", julio gil in the eighties...they have more to lose in the area of political instability than the "gulf" members do...believe chavez will waiver if there is enough internal turmoil to give him cause....i don't see oil strong, if current conditions remain static, for many years...war or natural disaster the only situation that could swiftly change...ed a.