The news that killed our momentum might be this from EE Times:
By Mark Carroll
EE Times
(04/22/99, 2:17 p.m. EDT)
TAIPEI, Taiwan — About 400 engineers from Taiwan-based motherboard and computer manufacturers attended PC133/266 Technology Forum '99, which featured working computers with PC133 SDRAM on reference boards produced by core logic vendor Via Technologies Inc.
Representatives from more than a dozen DRAM vendors were on hand to promote the PC133 specification. In moving to more-advanced process technology, partly to shrink their die sizes, many of the DRAM vendors are yielding SDRAMs which meet the 133-MHz speed grade, which could bring them a premium of 5 percent or less for the PC133 parts compared with the PC100 SDRAMs. In addition, several DRAM vendors already are shipping commercial samples of the 256-Mbit SDRAMs on modules that meet the PC133 specification for the server and workstation markets, said Dave Pulling, vice president of marketing at core logic vendor Reliance Computer Corp. (Santa Clara, Calif.).
Eric Chang, senior marketing manager at Via, said that in the current quarter Via will introduce desktop core logic — named "PC133 Enhanced Apollo Pro Plus" — which supports the PC133 SDRAMs. Soon after that, Via plans to combine graphics functionality on a notebook chip set, and by the second half will introduce core logic which supports double data rate SDRAMs, called PC266, as well as 4X AGP (advanced graphics port), for both desktops and notebooks.
Keith McDonald, who recently joined Smart Modular Technologies as president, said he believes both PC133 and Rambus-based solutions will enter the marketplace, but at different times and price points. "From Smart's perspective on Rambus, it is not a question of if, but when. For PC133, we expect the computer industry to launch the PC133 systems in the May time frame, with DDR coming in the third quarter. The computer industry has a need to market something new, and there is nothing to fill that hole right now. PC133 fills that hole. Rambus will come in later at the high end, and then move down to lower price points," McDonald said.
PC133 SDRAMs will be introduced in both servers and desktops at about the same time, according to McDonald's estimate.
Bert McComas, an analyst with InQuest Market Research who spoke at the Taiwan forum, said the needed element is a central body that can validate the reference boards and initial motherboard designs.
"Intel will stick with Rambus. They won't support PC133 or DDR publicly this year. Next year, Intel might have to flinch, however, if the market acknowledges the value of these memory solutions," McComas said.
Dong Kim, assistant marketing manager for Hyundai Electronics Co., said "the key hurdle is the spacing of the core logic and the memory modules. The Via boards place the core logic from 1 to 1.5 cm from the memory modules, almost flush with the CPU. Timing and spacing is still an issue. By the end of the second quarter, though, it will be worked out."
Kim added that once testing costs decline, by year's end there may be no price premium at all for PC133-based DRAMs.
Gil Russell, senior technical marketing manager for Infineon Technologies Inc. (formerly Seimens Microelectronics), said "DRAM vendors will have to provide new levels of support for PC133."
The brunt of the work will fall upon Taiwan's core logic vendors, though. "The core logic vendors are providing the reference boards," McComas said. "Via is concentrating on the unbuffered, low-end PC133 solution, while Acer Laboratories Inc. is focusing on the buffered solutions for the server segment."
"In cost-conscious Taiwan, the difference between a PC133 memory solution and a Rambus solution is the key sticking point here," said Jeb Kuo of Acer Open Inc. "We asked Intel to not give up on SDRAM yet. The higher cost of Rambus DRAM is still its major flaw. It's just too expensive."
An engineer working at First International Computer Co., who asked not to be named, made a similar point. "We are not in a hurry to develop Rambus DRAM boards," he said. "First, its a matter of cost. A Direct RDRAM module could be about $200 more expensive. Also, we have no working samples of Camino," the Intel core logic that will support a 133-MHz front-side bus, the Pentium III processor, and Direct Rambus.
McComas said "the total cost premium for a system using Rambus DRAM is almost $300. The premium for a raw D-RDRAM is about 35 percent higher than for a 133-MHz SDRAM. When packaging, testing, ECC compatibility and ramp-up costs are added, the premium is like 50 percent. Further, now that OEM orders for D-RDRAM are plummeting, the price must rise to pay for production costs so that the final price premium is around 70 percent."
McDonald said "based on the data that Smart Modular is familiar with," he expects an initial price premium — comparing a 128-Mbyte SDRAM module with a RDRAM module, or RIMM — to be in the 70 percent range. As volumes ramp, RIMM costs will come down.
However, McDonald, who earlier worked as a marketing vice president for several major DRAM vendors, said he believes that an overall DRAM shortage will exist by the fourth quarter. That will raise the question of "whether DRAM prices will come down as fast as costs."
Arthur Sainio, product line manager at Smart Modular (Fremont, Calif.), said engineers from Rambus and Intel are "doing a good job of teaching the industry how to build a RIMM module, going from A to Z. Intel's support structure is definitely helping the industry work out the snags."
Meanwhile, South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. announced its 72- and 144-Mbit RDRAMs have passed the Rambus DRAM Validation Test conducted by Intel. The company said the tests prove Samsung's devices meet Intel's specifications.
Samsung said it plans to increase production of 128- and 144-Mbit RDRAMs to 5 million units per month by the second half of the year. Samsung said it expects the RDRAM market to account for 50 percent, or $13.5 billion, of DRAM sales by 2001.
Also this week, Fujitsu Ltd. said it has started selling samples of its 128-Mbit SDRAMs conforming to the PC133 standard. Using an 0.2-micron process technology, the company said it was able to achieve a die size of only 85-mm2.
The new devices will target servers and workstations. Fujitsu will sell x4, x8 and x16 devices, as well as 168- and 144-pin DIMMs. The company plans to sell 1.3 million 133-MHz SDRAMs a month in volume starting in October.
Fujitsu's position on Direct RDRAM production remains unclear. "We are still looking at the market," a spokesman in Tokyo said. "If we do decide to [produce D-RDRAMs], it will be from 144-Mbit and above." |
