To: Doug Fowler who wrote (2765 ) 4/22/1999 11:51:00 PM From: William Wang Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7772
EBAY: Regional Auctions Coming; Very Strong Quarter Expected Volpe Brown Whelan & Co. (Derek L Brown 415-274-4494) EPS 1998A 1999E 2000E Investment Opinion BUY Q1 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 Price Target NM Q2 $0.02 $0.02 $0.04 52-Wk Price Range $195-$8 13/32 Q3 $0.02 $0.02 $0.05 Shares Out. (million) 129.3 Q4 $0.02 $0.02 $0.06 Market Cap. (million) $21298.2 Year(Dec) $0.07 $0.08 $0.18 3-Year EPS Growth Rate 75% P/E NM NM NM CY99 P/E to Growth Rate 2746% First Call $0.08 $0.18 CY00 P/E to Growth Rate 1220% ___________________________________________________________________________ _____ EBAY: Regional Auctions Coming; Very Strong Quarter Expected * eBay is planning to launch a regional auction service in Los Angeles later this month. * This expansion into local markets is significant because it should enable the Company to compete more directly with traditional classified advertising and to better capture the buying/selling/trading of big-ticket items (e.g., automobiles). * We expect eBay to report very strong Q1:99 results on Monday (4/26/99) after the close of the market. * The abovementioned events should be key catalysts for EBAY over the next several weeks * We reiterate our BUY rating on the Company's shares. According to published reports and conversations we have had with the Company, eBay is expected to unveil its first regional auction service later this month. The new localized service targeting Los Angeles may well be the first of many similar services the Company launches in major markets throughout the country. Importantly, this (oxymoronic) local expansion should position eBay to compete more effectively with traditional classified advertising (a $17-18 billion market in 1998) and should allow the Company to better capture the buying/selling of big-ticket items (e.g., automobiles). Given eBay's business model, which calls for the collection of listing fees and transaction success fees based on an item's dollar value and offers 80-85% gross margins, the prospect of selling higher-ticket items carries with it the long-term potential of significant upside to our financial projections. We would also note that the Company's "local" efforts should receive a boost in July/August 1999, when its four-year, $75 million alliance with America Online (see our research note, dated 3/25/99) comes online. In addition to providing significant exposure domestically and internationally, AOL should offer the Company a compelling entree into regional markets via Digital City. We expect eBay to report very strong Q1:99 results on Monday (4/26/99) after the close of the market. Although our current estimates call for total revenue of $25.6 million and EPS of $0.02, we suspect the Company could easily see total revenue of $30-35 million. Our optimism stems largely from the Company's escalating reach among online consumers. According to Media Metrix, eBay's average monthly reach in Q1:99 was 11.5%, representing about 6.9 million unique users, up significantly from an average monthly reach in Q4:98 of just 7.6% (4.3 million unique visitors). While eBay's valuation is clearly rich, we believe the abovementioned events will serve as important catalysts for its stock in coming weeks. Moreover, we continue to view eBay as a core Internet holding and one of only a handful of blue-chip e-commerce franchises. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating on the Company's shares.