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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (19094)	4/22/1999 8:55:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

<I'll listen anytime to someone who knows that the glass is half-empty and half-full.> I have this sort of viewpoint. I let go of my RMBS on Tuesday so that I can purchase LU shares. I did it not because I was bearish on RMBS. I did it because I realized that we're probably not going to see any upside movement on RMBS until the third quarter of this year. I have complete confidence that RDRAM will become the next standard in DRAM technology going into 2000 and beyond. Some people might groan over the royalties, the rumors of Intel dropping RDRAM support, the competing memory technologies, the so-called conspiracy over silencing negative news. But I have not seen any of the alternatives have as much of an industry backing as RDRAM has. A good comparison, IMHO, would be the introduction of the Pentium II and Intel's Slot 1 form factor. Many people said that Slot 1 will die, citing analogies to IBM's ultra-proprietary Microchannel which flopped big time. They said that there is no technological advantage towards going to Slot 1. They said it was just another attempt by Intel to push customers to a proprietary standard. They thought that the industry would resist Intel's push to Slot 1 thanks to AMD's efforts in Socket 7 and it's Super 7 derivative. (There were even rumors that Intel will then force people in 1999 from Slot 1 to Slot 2.) But the truth is that Intel executed well, and Slot 1 is here to stay, at least all the way through the year 2000 (and perhaps 2001 as well). Plus you have more Slot 1 platforms being sold than any other platform, especially Super 7 which has been relegated to the el cheapo retail PC market. Now we have RDRAM which demonstrates a clear advantage over the competing memory technologies. (I don't know anything about SLDRAM, but I have yet to see any evidence that the SLDRAM movement is gaining any momentum.) And we have Intel who obviously can't backtrack on their ambitious plans to design their future chipsets around RDRAM. We have Compaq/Digital who is planning on integrating an RDRAM controller into the next-generation Alpha CPU. Heck, even AMD says they'll support RDRAM in future chipsets which support their upcoming K7 processor. Of course, the three-month delay of Intel's Camino chipset was a big blow to Rambus' short-term prospects, which is why I sold my shares this week. But very soon I'll be looking at a chance to hop back into RMBS. I just hope I can hop back on before the stock inevitably takes off again. (Now that I think about it, my view of the glass is more half-full than half-empty. At least I know the glass isn't totally full ... yet.) Tenchusatsu