Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (120194)	4/22/1999 9:24:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Kumar musings... So now Kumar is looking for Dell to hit 5.7B, (45% y-o-y rev. growth) and 50% y-o-y unit growth.. Let me think about this.. Now Kumar has made some good calls (last, Compaq coming in at .16....a great call, and against the grain)...and not so good (Gateway to hit .90 this quarter)...but, on balance, and I know D. Swiss will disagree, I think he has been more right than wrong... And that is a good thing for Kumar...for if he were more wrong than right, he would probably lose his job....Wait a minute, I forgot for a minute...this is the investment community...the one place where you CAN be more wrong than right, AND keep your job, AND even prosper.. (Not entirely kidding but) let's just say that IT IS important that Kumar is right....for nothing else, for pride sake. On top of that, there seems, now, to be a little competition on who is the real axe here, Kumar or Niles....So the pressure IS on... What to make of Kumar's prediction...Well, mostly good things: (1) There is incentive for Kumar to be right (see above) (2) IMO, Kumar has been more right than wrong (3) Most importantly, look at the timing of Kumar's prediction....one week before the close of the quarter... Kumar's wrong predictions are usually when he is early...Look at the Gateway miss....he came out in February on that call (later revised)...surely, Kumar is not bad, stupid enough to come out a week before earnings, and BLOW the call...it leads me to think there is a lot to this, and his data is pretty good.... My guess...early in the quarter, Kumar could see (from his sources) that Compaq was sucking wind (thus his call), and that IBM was doing well (my guess here)....he knew that one or both of the direct guys was going well...but, because maybe it is a bit harder to gather data on those guys, he assumed it was Gateway kicking all the butt.....later, as the data became more clear, Dell and Gateway were sharing the gains... All speculation on my part....But I feel pretty good about Kumar prediction's made so late in the quarter...Even if he is 100 million heavy on revs, 5.6B would mean 43% y-o-y rev. growth, SOLID, and would quiet the "Dell is growing in the 30's" crowd... I like our odds here (of course, I am assuming we keep .082 margin....I think that should be in the bag... And if Kumar is dead on: 45% rev. growth 50%+ earnings growth 55% EPS, .17 That is GREAT my friend.