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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (498)	4/22/1999 10:17:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Hi Jim, the following has an interesting item about refinery closures for oil near the bottom of the article: FORTUCAST FINANCIAL TIMER PRECISE TIMING AND MOVEMENT ANALYSIS BY BARRY ROSEN "Serving Futures Traders Since 1987" UPDATED APRIL 21 FOR MARKETS OF APRIL 22, 1999 STOCKS and JUNE S & P e-minis WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping into May 1-4. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/23 L TURN: 5/1 H TURN: 10/99 L DAY TRADER'S PLANNER FOR JUNE S & P: (04/22) We got our intraday hotline subscribers out of shorts at the 1325 region to preserve a profit but this market is moving into high volatility mode--and it's not over yet. Wednesday's action, which retraced 78% of the fall from 1372 to 1290, is of the type that occurs at the beginning of a consolidating triangle position when a quick "b" wave occurs. The bullish scenario suggests that pullbacks will hold the 1340-1344 region, and a rally to 1374 should develop into Monday. The energy is there for it but I doubt that we will have follow-through buying on Thursday. The more conservative perspective favors a pullback to the 1318-1320 region. A light sale on Thursday for day traders looking for at least the 1344 region may be warranted if the market does not gallop overnight. Because of the friendly cycle that peaks into Monday, we will be cautious about selling this market, but we really do not have a place to buy. (04/22) Wednesday's action reminds us that we still need one more new high on the DOW for a pattern completion, and, as we have been saying, we think the earliest chance of that is after May 1. We are confident about new highs on the DOW up to the 11088-12000 region but we have been skeptical about new highs on the S & P cash but we are increasing our chances of that, looking for about 1376. Resistance on NASDQ is at 2513 and the breakdown on Monday is probably too irreparable to create new highs. The only way mutual funds are making money is by selling all their stuck stocks and buying the DOW and Microsoft and Intel-- and at some point even these stocks will not be able to go up. We have talked about the naive speculative cycle that continues into May and it is fascinating to see even with Russia about to default on its debt again (is anyone talking about it on CNBC?) the market is managing to stage absurd rallies. Bears are going to continue to ride the roller coaster but will eventually prevail. No need to add shorts or buy new put options or short mutual funds until May 1. CYCLES: The 12-year optimism cycle that has generated this rally does not really shift until after May 22, and if the market cannot fall much I suspect it will grind higher into May 1-4. BIGGER PICTURE: It will take one more new high on the DOW to make a stronger case for a pattern completion off of the October low. Weekly chart patterns are even suggesting a chance of a move to 11800-12,000. Once we do top, we think that we will have to fall, and DOW 7400 appears to be the mostly likely target this summer. I do not think we will see such levels for again for many years so do not get caught up in media hysteria or hopes that it will bounce back. OEX NOTES: (04/22) We may have gotten out of puts early on Monday but we still should have another entry into May 1 for new puts so be patient. OPTIONS TRADERS: We recommend that you switch to trading mini contracts on the S & P since options are so unforgiving. If you choose options, make sure you evaluate delta decay of options, manage your money and buy options that have enough time in them and do not trade against the major weekly chart trend. INTRADAY SERVICES now in effect: QUICK-TRADES HOTLINE: updated at 8:20 am and hourly from 9:30 am-2:30 pm CDT. Now contains more commentary at $4.95 PER CALL. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. S & P COMMENTARY LINE: Updated with pre-opening comments at 8:20 and at 10:35 am, 12:35 pm, and 2:00 pm; more detailed and priced quarterly. JUNE T-BONDS WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming. DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Lower. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/23 TURN: 4/27 L TURN: 5/99 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold shorts with a 122.25 stop. (04/22) Hourly stochastics still have a ways to go on the downside to get oversold but we will watch this one closely as cycles are not negative the next few days but suddenly will turn very negative as we move into Monday/Tuesday. First support is at the 121.28 region and then at the 121.21 and 121.01 and 120.27 regions. Until we close above 123.00, daily stochastics are still favoring sales. T-BONDS INTRADAY COMMENTARY LINE NOW AVAILABLE: Updated 8:15 am, 10:40 am, and 12:40 pm. Call 1-800-788-2796 for details. FOREIGN CURRENCY NOTES (04/22) The dollar should be lower into Friday. We are close to the first target of 101. Pullbacks may be minor and a new high into Monday could develop. JUNE DEUTSCHEMARK DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/23 H; 4/26 L TURN: 4/29 H TURN: 11/99 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 5399 stop. (04/22) The DM is on schedule and could even reach up to the 5595 region into April 29. We would continue to favor longs until then with the next swing high due into Friday. We probably will get a pullback over the weekend. LONGER-TERM: Weekly chart patterns suggest an eventual breakdown into next year to 5150, with a major monthly chart cycle low into November. JUNE JAPANESE YEN DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/22 L; 4/26 H TURN: 4/26 H TURN: 9/99 L POSITION TRADING STRATEGY: Hold puts. SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Buy 8390 or better with a 8315 stop. (04/22) We bought one day early but should bottom at the 8387 region and reach higher into the first few hours of Monday. We would at least expect a move back to the 8562 region and hold the daily trendline at 8325. Daily stochastics are starting to turn lower but may be giving a false signal here so we will again go for a light buy. BIGGER PICTURE: The rally off of the March high appears to be a 5th wave that will be complete around the 7850 region into the middle of April. The May rally will probably end up as a 3-wave rally to the whole decline from January and then the big push down should start sometime in June. OVERALL: The chances of a Yen meltdown to 160 Yen or lower by the end of the year seem inevitable given a number of economic factors. We will look for places to accumulate major short positions using Sept. and Dec. put options this month as a major move lower should come in April when the Japanese Y2K problem comes to the surface. JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR DAILY CHART TREND: Lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/23 H TURN: 5/1 H TURN: 5/1 H SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs on Friday. (04/22) The Canadian held the lower target area and should bounce one more day We will exit on Friday and look for lower prices into Monday. Resistance is at 6750, 6769 and 6785 with major resistance at 6808. We are more inclined to expect a slight new low into Monday toward the 6694 region if we cannot rally very much. Daily stochastics did turn down here so the rally may be light and it is starting to look countertrend. Linear cycle highs still could hold this market up until at least May 1 in congestive action. JUNE GOLD WEEKLY CHART TREND: Bottoming. DAILY CHART TREND: Topping and lower. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/26 H TURN: 5/6 H TURN: 4/99 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit shorts market on open. Buy market on open with a 280.90 stop. (04/22) Cycles for gold are supportive into Monday and into April 30 so we are inclined to cover and stand aside. We do not like the market enough to buy, but until we see higher levels into early May, we are wasting margin money for now. Eventually, we expect to breakdown to the 278 region. First support is at the 283.90 region. MAY SILVER WEEKLY CHART TREND: Topping and lower into April. DAILY CHART TREND: Bottoming and higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/26 H TURN: 4/26 H TURN: 4/99 H; 9/99 SWING TRADING STRATEGY: hold longs. (04/22) Downside patterns still would allow a push toward 506 but we are more inclined to expect an upside breakout toward 523 or 540. We will hold longs with a 503 stop. There is a very energetic cycle and it is safer to get long. The worst downside is probably the 506 region. JUNE CRUDE DAILY CHART TREND: Higher. TODAY'S EXPECTED DIRECTION: Bottoming and higher. NEXT HOURLY CHART NEXT DAILY CHART NEXT WEEKLY CHART TURN: 4/23 H TURN: 4/23 H; 5/6 H TURN: 5/99 H; 8/99 L SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Exit longs 1840. (04/22) We are willing to be long 1-2 more days, but if we hit the 1845-1855 region, it will be time to consider a light short. Our 4th-wave pullback target area is still the 1525-1540 region followed by a high into May 6. LONGER-TERM: (3/24) We do see a bounce to at least 1885 into the late April or mid-May cycle high. Longer-term cycles this year suggest a May high, an August low, and then higher prices into November. MAY GASOLINE (04/22) Minimum upside for gas is the 5470 region and we will exit by Friday's close as the market is struggling. The chances of 5800 appear small this week until we get another pullback. Our 5th-wave high is 5800, with the latest top by May 6-7. LONGER-TERM: We like the long-term play on gas into the end of the year as refinery shut-downs are likely to create gasoline shortages. The US Dept. of Energy estimated that only 30% of US refineries would be operating. SWING TRADING STRATEGY: Hold longs with a 5160 stop. Have a great trading day! Barry Rosen

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (498)	4/22/1999 10:25:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Hello Jim, Well well. The QQQ P&F chart is showing some strength! Here's what she (yes, she's my pretty baby now) looks like: 114 112 X 110 4 O 108 X O X 106 X X X O X 104 X X O X O X O X 102 X O X O X X X O X O X 100 X X O X 2 X O X O X O X O X 99 X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X 98 X O X O X O X O X O X O X O < 2nd BLRL 97 X O X O O O X O X O + 96 X O X * O X O X * 95 X O X * O X 3 X * 94 X O X * O O * < BRSL 93 1 O X * + 92 X O * 91 X + * 90 X + * 89 X + * 88 X + * 87 X + * < BRSL 86 X + 85 X + < 1st BLRL 84 X X + 83 X O X + 82 X X O X + 81 X X O X O + 80 X O X O X + 79 X O X O + 78 X O X + 77 X C + 76 X + + 75 X + + 74 X + + < BLSL 73 X + + 72 X + + 71 B + + 70 X + + 69 O X + + 68 O X + + 67 A X + 66 O + X + 65 O + X + 64 O + X + 63 O + X + 62 O X X X + 61 O X O X O X + 60 O X O X O X + 59 O O X O + 58 O X + 57 O X + 56 O X + 55 O X + 54 O + 53 + BulLish Support Line (BLSL); BulLish Resistance Line (BLRL); BeaRish Support Line (BRSP); BeaRish Resistance Line (BRRL) and High Pole Formation (HPF). QQQ reversed up last night to the 106 box and tonight closed the 108 box. One of my favorite plays is to buy on a positive reversal. This simply means that instead of buying on a pullback (one never knows when the hell it's going to stop going the wrong way) you wait for a positive reversal back up off of the pullback. In this way you're going the right way, and would set the stop loss order at 97. In my last post I thought we might see a double bottom sell signal because of the high pole formation. As of tonight, I don't think so. Why? Virtually all my short and long term P&F indicators are bullish now. The QQQ Bullish % chart (see below) has reversed up. And, the secondary indicators I now watch are signaling more upside. Notice how the 2nd BLRL held the last column of O's for good support. In addition, there is a Revised BLSL at 97. You can see the old horizontal resistance at 112. The 3rd BLRL is also setting at 112. This will be some breakout if it goes through this point. Its bullish price objective is 130. QQQ BULLISH PERCENT CHART The grand ole P&F Italian master Chartseer has been keeping daily QQQ Bullish chart data since 3/12/99. The daily chart looks like this: 72 70 X 68 X O 66 X O 64 O 62 O X 60 O X O 58 O X O 56 O X O 54 O X O 52 O X O 50 O X O X 48 O X O X 46 O X O X 44 O X O X 42 O X O X 40 O O This Bullish % chart is in Bear Correction risk status. (50% of the 100 stocks that make up the QQQ are on a P&F buy signal. And that means the other 50 are on sell signals.) New buy signals from ATML, CBRL, DLTR, MXIM, NTLI, TLAB, VTSS. BULLISH PERCENT RISK STATUS DEFINITIONS: BULL CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of X's moves above the previous column of X's. BULL CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status reverses down to a column of O's and 1) does not move below the previous column of O's, or 2) reverses down from above the 70% level but does not move to the 68% level or lower. BULL ALERT: Occurs when a column of O's in Bear Confirmed risk status drops to the 30% level or lower, and then reverses up to a column of X's and does not move above the previous column of X's. BEAR CONFIRMED: Occurs when a column of O's moves below the previous column of O's. BEAR CORRECTION: Occurs when a column of O's in a Bear Confirmed risk status reverses up to a column of X's, and does not move above the previous column of X's. BEAR ALERT: Occurs when a column of X's in Bull Confirmed risk status moves to the 70% level or higher, and then reverses down to a column of O's that drop to the 68% level or lower, and does not move below the previous column of O's. NOTE: The above is just for grins and chart discussions. No recommendations of any kind are being made<g>. Take care, Eric