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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (501)	4/23/1999 12:12:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Les; That does look good for the NDX, I'm still a little worried about the mid term because of the 30yr yield going up , and I see some risk that we will get another pull back, but on the other hand I could also build a very bullish picture, with it now getting broader, and I notice the leaders have come back. I'm reluctant to build the big bull case as the run up in a year has been so damm strong, and any thing unexpected could send her way down. I don't think the old tulip run they talk of was much stronger than this. The case for more upside is strong , but in the event she were to drop below her support the "risk for a lot of down side" is what gets me, I have to ask myself if she were to flop down how low could she go, and weigh that against another 50% gain. I'm looking at some alternatives to limit the risk but I have to do more work. I want to play this qqq bad, but I may just hedge my bets until I see her give up more than she did on that last dip. Jim

To: Les H who wrote (501)	4/24/1999 10:34:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 2103

I added the 5-day RSI and 5-day Stochastic to my statistical report on momentum reversals. The statistic for this week's Nasdaq 100: On Tuesday's reversal day, 25% of the Nasdaq 100 stocks had new RSI-5 buy signals versus 1% sells. Wednesday followed through Tuesday's reversals with 15% buys versus 6% sells. I used to maintain this on the report but had lost it when I got system exceptions that blew up when I ran the report. So, the cumulative number of reversals in Tuesday-Wednesday were: 40% buys versus 7% sells. The oscillator reversals were followed shortly thereafter on Wednesday-Friday by 8-17-9 MACDs firing off buy signals for 37% of the stocks versus just 5% sells. Friday had 16% buy signals. MACDs tend to lag behind the RSI because of the parameter settings. The 12-25-9 MACDs were similar for the three day period: 32% buys versus just 1% sells. No momentum reversals on the sell side yet to show Nasdaq will pull back. The S&P 500 is quite different. Tuesday-Wednesday showed 20% RSI-5 buys signals versus 27% sell signals, a mixed picture. The bigger stocks probably pushed the index slightly higher at the expense of the cyclicals. Even on Tuesday's reversal day, it was very mixed --- 12% of the stocks gave RSI-5 crossovers of the 30 buy signal line versus 20% of the stocks firing RSI-5 crossovers of the 70 sell signal line. Friday's S&P 500 showed a much higher proportion of sells for the 5-day RSI: 11% sells versus 1% buys. Of course, it depends on what stocks are moving in the S&P 500 as to what the index is priced but if there is follow-through with more sells then the index should reverse.