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Technology Stocks : XYBR - Xybernaut -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crusader who wrote (2529)	4/23/1999 8:47:00 AM
From: Bill Fischofer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6847

Re: 1Q99 The fallout from the 4Q98 report is that the market is now in "show me" mode. It is basically saying it doesn't believe that XYBR has sold anything yet and is waiting to be proven wrong. XYBR can release all of the PR they want, but the only thing that will get a real reaction at this point aside from an announcement of real sales would be an announcement of an equity investment by a major partner. XYBR would not be in this trading range if the market really believed that it would achieve $40 million in revenue this year. This skepticism is entirely due to the revenue 'misunderstanding' in the delayed 4Q98 report and the only 'cure' will be convincing evidence that XYBR really is tracking to that target. Once such evidence is presented the reaction will be dramatic, but until that happens we can look forward to continued narrow trading with a slight downward bias. Since the 1Q99 results were already known by management at the time the 4Q98 report was released it is reasonable to conclude that the evidence that the market is looking for will not be found in the 1Q99 report. It appears that XYBR's overall timetable has experienced at least one full quarter's worth of slippage since early 1998 when plans for the MA IV were first announced. But unless one believes that XYBR management is engaged in outright fraud (which I certainly do not) it seems that the current quarter (2Q99) is the key quarter which will provide the confirmation of management's repeated optimism.