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To: Carl R. who wrote (45329)	4/23/1999 6:30:00 AM
From: Fabeyes	Respond to of 53903

... could well start in August. That will depends on the last quarter. If good and things have firmed you are right. If not it could go close to single digits. This is following a very familiar path right now. Review the stock from 85-87.

To: Carl R. who wrote (45329)	4/24/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl, it could play out that way. And that's definitely what MU seems to be banking on. With the Taiwanese suit now part of the picture, they can't come out and say to the rest of the industry, "We will bury you. We're willing to take a short-term hit because we're confident that when the smoke clears, we'll still be here and the players who shouldn't be here will have folded", but that's certainly the signal I'm getting. Are production increases a natural part of the industry given what we're dealing with in terms of technology? Yes. Do they want to spread their fixed costs over a larger number of units? Absolutely. But IMHO, if you had to slice it up, I'd argue there's a significant strategic component at work. It's a gambit they're willing to make. Then you get statements like this: Geraghty said it is not clear which producers are responsible for the growth in DRAM supply, but noted that personal computer demand has entered a seasonally slow period. How can he make that statement? A) They had sequential bit growth of 90% last Q. B) I have no idea of whenever the bottlenecks that limited their 99Q1 bit output became unclogged, but my suspicion is that there would be a large correlation between that point and the point when overall prices started this downward move. C) There's a strategic angle that IMHO he's missing. Whether I'm overemphasizing it, I don't know. But I think it's there. Good trading, Tom