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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (59633)	4/23/1999 10:04:00 AM
From: Roads End	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

EL...The total shares traded since the infamous warning April 6 is 336 million as of this morning. If your rule of thumb for base building is accurate we are about there. The decision then becomes will the base be something to climb up from or fall off. I say flip a coin, it could go either way. Steve

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (59633)	4/23/1999 10:22:00 AM
From: csm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

So it will take 6 months or so for CPQ to really turn around. Don't forget that even though analysts will want to see the money, the market tends to anticipate and lead the performance of a company. Let me give a little example. A couple of months ago I bought the largest Canadian oil service stock (trades in US as PDS) mostly based on the fact that no one, and I mean no one, thought oil service stocks would go up. The companies business was at an all-time low but they were still making good profits and were very strong financially. After buying it I thought, Geez, that was stupid, the integrated oils will go up way before the service stocks. Any turnaround in business is at least 6-9 months away. Then oil prices went up and oil service stocks went up in tandem with producers. The market anticipates. What's the point? I'm holding CPQ here although I've been thinking of switching. Why? Because the company is really cheap here. Practically no one wants it and it will be at least 2 quarters before all the ducks are lined up to bring the analysts back on board. Problem is that by then the stock will already be at $40 on its way to $60. I'd rather "buy" at $24 than $40 when everyone wakes up to CPQs future. Stuart.