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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (1306)	4/29/1999 3:26:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

Ian & Thread: Contract news. Message 9222339 Tim

To: Ian@SI who wrote (1306)	5/5/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2313

From an SSB research note... ... Expect Initial Shipments Around October 1999 The exact order size is still sketchy, with management's estimate at $20-30 million. Shipments are expected to begin in the October 1999 (FY3Q00) time frame. A significant ramp is expected in the next 3-4 quarters. Gross margins on the order are expected to be inline with the overall company average and Asyst should be able to achieve good operating expense leverage as expenses should not increase a great deal relative to the increase in sales. Our model calls for a 46% sequential increase in revenues to $35 million in FY3Q00 (Dec.) and this order gives us greater comfort in the aggressive ramp in our model. With this order, we believe there is a possibility of upsides to our sales estimate of $36 million in FY4Q00 (March) and in FY01, but we need better visibility on the shipment schedule before making any changes to our model. However, it is the earnings multiple which is our concern, which we elaborate upon below. Many Similar Opportunities Ahead Asyst believes that there are between 10-15 fabs which could potentially upgrade in the near future from 6" to 8" using SMIF technology. Assuming that each fab could generate an average of $15-20 million of orders, this represent a significant incremental business for Asyst. As IC manufacturers realize the attractive economics of this type of upgrade, we believe more orders are likely to materialize. Longer term, management believes that there are hundreds of 6" fabs which could potentially be upgraded in the future. The company's goal is for 1 project per quarter. ... smithbarneyresearch.com